# Confidence Estimation for LLM-Based Dialogue State Tracking

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.09629 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.09629/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 28 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Sep 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 28 of 28)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Calibrate Before Use: Improving Few-Shot Performance of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09690/) (2021)
- [Inference-Time Intervention: Eliciting Truthful Answers from a Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03341/) (2023)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [SelfCheckGPT: Zero-Resource Black-Box Hallucination Detection for Generative Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08896/) (2023)
- [MultiWOZ -- A Large-Scale Multi-Domain Wizard-of-Oz Dataset for Task-Oriented Dialogue Modelling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.00278/) (2018)
- [Plan-and-Solve Prompting: Improving Zero-Shot Chain-of-Thought Reasoning by Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.04091/) (2023)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.14983/) (2020)
- [MultiWOZ 2.2 : A Dialogue Dataset with Additional Annotation Corrections and State Tracking Baselines](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.12720/) (2020)
- [Out-of-Distribution Detection and Selective Generation for Conditional Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15558/) (2022)
- [MinTL: Minimalist Transfer Learning for Task-Oriented Dialogue Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.12005/) (2020)
- [Stop Measuring Calibration When Humans Disagree](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.16133/) (2022)
- [Zero-Shot Transfer Learning with Synthesized Data for Multi-Domain Dialogue State Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.00891/) (2020)
- [Leveraging Slot Descriptions for Zero-Shot Cross-Domain Dialogue State Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.04222/) (2021)
- [Are LLMs All You Need for Task-Oriented Dialogue?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.06556/) (2023)
- [Zero-Shot Dialogue State Tracking via Cross-Task Transfer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.04655/) (2021)
- [Towards Fair Evaluation of Dialogue State Tracking by Flexible Incorporation of Turn-level Performances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03375/) (2022)
- [Uncertainty Measures in Neural Belief Tracking and the Effects on Dialogue Policy Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.04349/) (2021)
- [Deal, or no deal (or who knows)? Forecasting Uncertainty in Conversations using Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03284/) (2024)
- [Mismatch between Multi-turn Dialogue and its Evaluation Metric in Dialogue State Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.03123/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Self-Evaluating LLMs for Multi-Step Tasks: Stepwise Confidence Estimation for Failure Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.07364/) (2025)
- [On the Robustness of Verbal Confidence of LLMs in Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.06489/) (2025)
- [The Detection-Extraction Gap: Models Know the Answer Before They Can Say It](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.06613/) (2026)
- [Confidence-Aware Routing for Large Language Model Reliability Enhancement: A Multi-Signal Approach to Pre-Generation Hallucination Mitigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.01237/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Estimation of a model's confidence on its outputs is critical for Conversational AI systems based on large language models (LLMs), especially for reducing hallucination and preventing over-reliance. In this work, we provide an exhaustive exploration of methods, including approaches proposed for open- and closed-weight LLMs, aimed at quantifying and leveraging model uncertainty to improve the reliability of LLM-generated responses, specifically focusing on dialogue state tracking (DST) in task-oriented dialogue systems (TODS). Regardless of the model type, well-calibrated confidence scores are essential to handle uncertainties, thereby improving model performance. We evaluate four methods for estimating confidence scores based on softmax, raw token scores, verbalized confidences, and a combination of these methods, using the area under the curve (AUC) metric to assess calibration, with higher AUC indicating better calibration. We also enhance these with a self-probing mechanism, proposed for closed models. Furthermore, we assess these methods using an open-weight model fine-tuned for the task of DST, achieving superior joint goal accuracy (JGA). Our findings also suggest that fine-tuning open-weight LLMs can result in enhanced AUC performance, indicating better confidence score calibration.