# CoDiCast: Conditional Diffusion Model for Global Weather Prediction with Uncertainty Quantification

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.05975 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.05975/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 28 of its 49 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Sep 2024.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 28 of 28)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10752/) (2021)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.12598/) (2022)
- [Adding Conditional Control to Text-to-Image Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.05543/) (2023)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [GLIDE: Towards Photorealistic Image Generation and Editing with Text-Guided Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10741/) (2021)
- [Prompt-to-Prompt Image Editing with Cross Attention Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.01626/) (2022)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [Diffusion Probabilistic Models for 3D Point Cloud Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.01458/) (2021)
- [SRDiff: Single Image Super-Resolution with Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.14951/) (2021)
- [ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.10343/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench: A benchmark dataset for data-driven weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00469/) (2020)
- [FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12873/) (2023)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.15796/) (2023)
- [FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Lead](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02948/) (2023)
- [Forecasting Global Weather with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07575/) (2022)
- [PreDiff: Precipitation Nowcasting with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.10422/) (2023)
- [ClimODE: Climate and Weather Forecasting with Physics-informed Neural ODEs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.10024/) (2024)
- [Latent diffusion models for generative precipitation nowcasting with accurate uncertainty quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.12891/) (2023)
- [Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.13458/) (2024)
- [Precipitation nowcasting with generative diffusion models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.06733/) (2023)
- [FIDLAR: Forecast-Informed Deep Learning Architecture for Flood Mitigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.13371/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Weather Prediction: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.06907/) (2025)
- [How Effective are Large Time Series Models in Hydrology? A Study on Water Level Forecasting in Everglades](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.01415/) (2025)
- [Probabilistic Precipitation Nowcasting with Rectified Flow Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.31204/) (2026)
- [LatticeVision: Image to Image Networks for Modeling Non-Stationary Spatial Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09803/) (2025)
- [Accurate, Efficient, and Explainable Deep Learning Approaches for Environmental Science Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.19366/) (2026)
- [QWRF-Net: A Quantum-Wavelet Framework with Rectified Flow for Short-Term Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.01626/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate weather forecasting is critical for science and society. Yet, existing methods have not managed to simultaneously have the properties of high accuracy, low uncertainty, and high computational efficiency. On one hand, to quantify the uncertainty in weather predictions, the strategy of ensemble forecast (i.e., generating a set of diverse predictions) is often employed. However, traditional ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) is computationally intensive. On the other hand, most existing machine learning-based weather prediction (MLWP) approaches are efficient and accurate. Nevertheless, they are deterministic and cannot capture the uncertainty of weather forecasting. In this work, we propose CoDiCast, a conditional diffusion model to generate accurate global weather prediction, while achieving uncertainty quantification with ensemble forecasts and modest computational cost. The key idea is to simulate a conditional version of the reverse denoising process in diffusion models, which starts from pure Gaussian noise to generate realistic weather scenarios for a future time point. Each denoising step is conditioned on observations from the recent past. Ensemble forecasts are achieved by repeatedly sampling from stochastic Gaussian noise to represent uncertainty quantification. CoDiCast is trained on a decade of ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms several existing data-driven methods in accuracy. Our conditional diffusion model, CoDiCast, can generate 6-day global weather forecasts, at 6-hour steps and 5.625^circ latitude-longitude resolution, for over 5 variables, in about 12 minutes on a commodity A100 GPU machine with 80GB memory. The open-souced code is provided at https://github.com/JimengShi/CoDiCast.