# UMOD: A Novel and Effective Urban Metro Origin-Destination Flow Prediction Method

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.04942 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.04942/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 22 of its 44 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Sep 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [GMAN: A Graph Multi-Attention Network for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08415/) (2019)
- [T-GCN: A Temporal Graph ConvolutionalNetwork for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.05320/) (2018)
- [TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14616/) (2024)
- [Deep Spatio-Temporal Residual Networks for Citywide Crowd Flows Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.00081/) (2016)
- [TSMixer: An All-MLP Architecture for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.06053/) (2023)
- [Spatial-Temporal Transformer Networks for Traffic Flow Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.02908/) (2020)
- [Spatial-Temporal Identity: A Simple yet Effective Baseline for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05233/) (2022)
- [Decoupled Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.09112/) (2022)
- [SOFTS: Efficient Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Series-Core Fusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14197/) (2024)
- [Contextualized Spatial-Temporal Network for Taxi Origin-Destination Demand Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.06335/) (2019)
- [Predicting origin-destination ride-sourcing demand with a spatio-temporal encoder-decoder residual multi-graph convolutional network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09103/) (2019)
- [LibCity: A Unified Library Towards Efficient and Comprehensive Urban Spatial-Temporal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14343/) (2023)
- [An Interdisciplinary Survey on Origin-destination Flows Modeling: Theory and Techniques](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10048/) (2023)
- [Online Metro Origin-Destination Prediction via Heterogeneous Information Aggregation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.00946/) (2021)
- [Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Graph Relation Learning for Urban Metro Flow Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.02650/) (2022)
- [Continuous-Time and Multi-Level Graph Representation Learning for Origin-Destination Demand Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.15005/) (2022)
- [CDGNet: A Cross-Time Dynamic Graph-based Deep Learning Model for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.02736/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate prediction of metro Origin-Destination (OD) flow is essential for the development of intelligent transportation systems and effective urban traffic management. Existing approaches typically either predict passenger outflow of departure stations or inflow of destination stations. However, we argue that travelers generally have clearly defined departure and arrival stations, making these OD pairs inherently interconnected. Consequently, considering OD pairs as a unified entity more accurately reflects actual metro travel patterns and allows for analyzing potential spatio-temporal correlations between different OD pairs. To address these challenges, we propose a novel and effective urban metro OD flow prediction method (UMOD), comprising three core modules: a data embedding module, a temporal relation module, and a spatial relation module. The data embedding module projects raw OD pair inputs into hidden space representations, which are subsequently processed by the temporal and spatial relation modules to capture both inter-pair and intra-pair spatio-temporal dependencies. Experimental results on two real-world urban metro OD flow datasets demonstrate that adopting the OD pairs perspective is critical for accurate metro OD flow prediction. Our method outperforms existing approaches, delivering superior predictive performance.