# Ionospheric Scintillation Forecasting Using Machine Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.00118 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.00118/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 2 of its 17 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Aug 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Amplitude Scintillation Forecasting Using Bagged Trees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.08745/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This study explores the use of historical data from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) scintillation monitoring receivers to predict the severity of amplitude scintillation, a phenomenon where electron density irregularities in the ionosphere cause fluctuations in GNSS signal power. These fluctuations can be measured using the S4 index, but real-time data is not always available. The research focuses on developing a machine learning (ML) model that can forecast the intensity of amplitude scintillation, categorizing it into low, medium, or high severity levels based on various time and space-related factors. Among six different ML models tested, the XGBoost model emerged as the most effective, demonstrating a remarkable 77% prediction accuracy when trained with a balanced dataset. This work underscores the effectiveness of machine learning in enhancing the reliability and performance of GNSS signals and navigation systems by accurately predicting amplitude scintillation severity.