# Improving the Prediction of Individual Engagement in Recommendations Using Cognitive Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.16147 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.16147/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Aug 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Field Study in Deploying Restless Multi-Armed Bandits: Assisting Non-Profits in Improving Maternal and Child Health](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.08075/) (2021)
- [A Decision-Language Model (DLM) for Dynamic Restless Multi-Armed Bandit Tasks in Public Health](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14807/) (2024)
- [Finite-Time Analysis of Whittle Index based Q-Learning for Restless Multi-Armed Bandits with Neural Network Function Approximation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02147/) (2023)
- [The Bandit Whisperer: Communication Learning for Restless Bandits](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.05686/) (2024)
- [Limited Resource Allocation in a Non-Markovian World: The Case of Maternal and Child Healthcare](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.12640/) (2023)
- [Improving Health Information Access in the World's Largest Maternal Mobile Health Program via Bandit Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.12131/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [HealthQ: Unveiling Questioning Capabilities of LLM Chains in Healthcare Conversations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19487/) (2024)
- [Towards Foundation-model-based Multiagent System to Accelerate AI for Social Impact](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.07880/) (2024)
- [The Evidence Ladder for Reinforcement Learning in Healthcare: From Retrospective Policies to Trusted Interventions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.23374/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

For public health programs with limited resources, the ability to predict how behaviors change over time and in response to interventions is crucial for deciding when and to whom interventions should be allocated. Using data from a real-world maternal health program, we demonstrate how a cognitive model based on Instance-Based Learning (IBL) Theory can augment existing purely computational approaches. Our findings show that, compared to general time-series forecasters (e.g., LSTMs), IBL models, which reflect human decision-making processes, better predict the dynamics of individuals' states. Additionally, IBL provides estimates of the volatility in individuals' states and their sensitivity to interventions, which can improve the efficiency of training of other time series models.