# RoCP-GNN: Robust Conformal Prediction for Graph Neural Networks in Node-Classification

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.13825 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.13825/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 37 of its 59 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Aug 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Neural Message Passing for Quantum Chemistry](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.01212/) (2017)
- [Convolutional Neural Networks on Graphs with Fast Localized Spectral Filtering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.09375/) (2016)
- [Predict then Propagate: Graph Neural Networks meet Personalized PageRank](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.05997/) (2018)
- [Geom-GCN: Geometric Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05287/) (2020)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [TUDataset: A collection of benchmark datasets for learning with graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.08663/) (2020)
- [Multi-scale Attributed Node Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.13021/) (2019)
- [Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.06019/) (2019)
- [Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coverage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.02544/) (2020)
- [Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.00170/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.14193/) (2020)
- [Towards Deeper Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.09296/) (2020)
- [Least Ambiguous Set-Valued Classifiers with Bounded Error Levels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.00451/) (2016)
- [Fast Differentiable Sorting and Ranking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08871/) (2020)
- [Mix-n-Match: Ensemble and Compositional Methods for Uncertainty Calibration in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.07329/) (2020)
- [A Survey of Graph Neural Networks for Recommender Systems: Challenges, Methods, and Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.12843/) (2021)
- [Conformal Inference for Online Prediction with Arbitrary Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.08401/) (2022)
- [Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.07972/) (2020)
- [Learning Optimal Conformal Classifiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.09192/) (2021)
- [Calibration of Neural Networks using Splines](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.12800/) (2020)
- [Be Confident! Towards Trustworthy Graph Neural Networks via Confidence Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.14285/) (2021)
- [Shift-Robust GNNs: Overcoming the Limitations of Localized Graph Training Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.01099/) (2021)
- [Molecular graph generation with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07397/) (2020)
- [Uncertainty Quantification over Graph with Conformalized Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14535/) (2023)
- [Equivariant Graph Neural Networks for 3D Macromolecular Structure](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.03843/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as powerful tools for predicting outcomes in graph-structured data. However, a notable limitation of GNNs is their inability to provide robust uncertainty estimates, which undermines their reliability in contexts where errors are costly. One way to address this issue is by providing prediction sets that contain the true label with a predefined probability margin. Our approach builds upon conformal prediction (CP), a framework that promises to construct statistically robust prediction sets or intervals. There are two primary challenges: first, given dependent data like graphs, it is unclear whether the critical assumption in CP - exchangeability - still holds when applied to node classification. Second, even if the exchangeability assumption is valid for conformalized link prediction, we need to ensure high efficiency, i.e., the resulting prediction set or the interval length is small enough to provide useful information. In this article, we propose a novel approach termed Robust Conformal Prediction for GNNs (RoCP-GNN), which integrates conformal prediction (CP) directly into the GNN training process. This method generates prediction sets, instead of just point predictions, that are valid at a user-defined confidence level, assuming only exchangeability. Our approach robustly predicts outcomes with any predictive GNN model while quantifying the uncertainty in predictions within the realm of graph-based semi-supervised learning (SSL). Experimental results demonstrate that GNN models with size loss provide a statistically significant increase in performance. We validate our approach on standard graph benchmark datasets by coupling it with various state-of-the-art GNNs in node classification. The code will be made available after publication.