# Poor-Supervised Evaluation for SuperLLM via Mutual Consistency

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.13738 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.13738/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 33 of its 59 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Aug 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 33)

- [A Simple Framework for Contrastive Learning of Visual Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05709/) (2020)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [GLUE: A Multi-Task Benchmark and Analysis Platform for Natural Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.07461/) (2018)
- [G-Eval: NLG Evaluation using GPT-4 with Better Human Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16634/) (2023)
- [Virtual Adversarial Training: A Regularization Method for Supervised and Semi-Supervised Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.03976/) (2017)
- [Weak-to-Strong Generalization: Eliciting Strong Capabilities With Weak Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.09390/) (2023)
- [Pervasive Label Errors in Test Sets Destabilize Machine Learning Benchmarks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14749/) (2021)
- [USR: An Unsupervised and Reference Free Evaluation Metric for Dialog Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.00456/) (2020)
- [Generation-Augmented Retrieval for Open-domain Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.08553/) (2020)
- [Benchmarking Foundation Models with Language-Model-as-an-Examiner](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.04181/) (2023)
- [Leveraging Unlabeled Data to Predict Out-of-Distribution Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.04234/) (2022)
- [Assessing Generalization of SGD via Disagreement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13799/) (2021)
- [PRD: Peer Rank and Discussion Improve Large Language Model based Evaluations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.02762/) (2023)
- [Escape Sky-high Cost: Early-stopping Self-Consistency for Multi-step Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10480/) (2024)
- [TACRED Revisited: A Thorough Evaluation of the TACRED Relation Extraction Task](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.14855/) (2020)
- [Agreement-on-the-Line: Predicting the Performance of Neural Networks under Distribution Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.13089/) (2022)
- [What Does Rotation Prediction Tell Us about Classifier Accuracy under Varying Testing Environments?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.05961/) (2021)
- [Detecting Errors and Estimating Accuracy on Unlabeled Data with Self-training Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.15728/) (2021)
- [Predicting Out-of-Distribution Error with the Projection Norm](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05834/) (2022)
- [Evaluating Superhuman Models with Consistency Checks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09983/) (2023)
- [Annotation Error Detection: Analyzing the Past and Present for a More Coherent Future](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.02280/) (2022)
- [Boosting Logical Reasoning in Large Language Models through a New Framework: The Graph of Thought](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08614/) (2023)
- [Self-Filtering: A Noise-Aware Sample Selection for Label Noise with Confidence Penalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.11351/) (2022)
- [Turning Dust into Gold: Distilling Complex Reasoning Capabilities from LLMs by Leveraging Negative Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.12832/) (2023)
- [Integrate the Essence and Eliminate the Dross: Fine-Grained Self-Consistency for Free-Form Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.02056/) (2024)
- [BatchEval: Towards Human-like Text Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.00437/) (2023)
- [On the Importance of Feature Separability in Predicting Out-Of-Distribution Error](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.15488/) (2023)
- [Predicting Out-of-Distribution Error with Confidence Optimal Transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.05018/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Focused Large Language Models are Stable Many-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.13987/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The guidance from capability evaluations has greatly propelled the progress of both human society and Artificial Intelligence. However, as LLMs evolve, it becomes challenging to construct evaluation benchmarks for them with accurate labels on hard tasks that approach the boundaries of human capabilities. To credibly conduct evaluation without accurate labels (denoted as poor-supervised evaluation), we propose the PoEM framework. We first prove that the capability of a model can be equivalently assessed by the consistency between it and certain reference model, when their prediction distributions are independent and the sample size is infinite. To alleviate the insufficiencies of the conditions in reality, we further introduce an algorithm that treats humans (when available) and the models under evaluation as reference models, alternately conducting model weights calibration and filtering during E-step and M-step. Comprehensive experiments across 3 types of tasks with 16 mainstream LLMs have shown that PoEM under poor supervision can achieve an average of 0.98 Pearson correlation coefficient with supervised evaluation results, demonstrating good effectiveness, efficiency and generalizability. More generally, PoEM has advanced the evaluation paradigm evolution from human-centric to human&model-centric by treating both of them as reference models, mitigating the limitations of human evaluation in the era of LLMs.