# Robust Predictions with Ambiguous Time Delays: A Bootstrap Strategy

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.12801 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.12801/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 51 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Aug 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Multi-version Tensor Completion for Time-delayed Spatio-temporal Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05326/) (2021)
- [Probability Paths and the Structure of Predictions over Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.06515/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In contemporary data-driven environments, the generation and processing of multivariate time series data is an omnipresent challenge, often complicated by time delays between different time series. These delays, originating from a multitude of sources like varying data transmission dynamics, sensor interferences, and environmental changes, introduce significant complexities. Traditional Time Delay Estimation methods, which typically assume a fixed constant time delay, may not fully capture these variabilities, compromising the precision of predictive models in diverse settings. To address this issue, we introduce the Time Series Model Bootstrap (TSMB), a versatile framework designed to handle potentially varying or even nondeterministic time delays in time series modeling. Contrary to traditional approaches that hinge on the assumption of a single, consistent time delay, TSMB adopts a nonparametric stance, acknowledging and incorporating time delay uncertainties. TSMB significantly bolsters the performance of models that are trained and make predictions using this framework, making it highly suitable for a wide range of dynamic and interconnected data environments.