# Deconfounding Multi-Cause Latent Confounders: A Factor-Model Approach to Climate Model Bias Correction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.12063 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.12063/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 36 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Aug 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14616/) (2024)
- [The Blessings of Multiple Causes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.06826/) (2018)
- [Time Series Deconfounder: Estimating Treatment Effects over Time in the Presence of Hidden Confounders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.00450/) (2019)
- [Adaptive Bias Correction for Improved Subseasonal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.10666/) (2022)
- [On the Identification of Temporally Causal Representation with Instantaneous Dependence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15325/) (2024)
- [Instrumental Variable Estimation for Causal Inference in Longitudinal Data with Time-Dependent Latent Confounders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.07175/) (2023)
- [A Temporal Stochastic Bias Correction using a Machine Learning Attention model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14169/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Causal GNNs: A GNN-Driven Instrumental Variable Approach for Causal Inference in Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.08544/) (2024)
- [TSI: A Multi-View Representation Learning Approach for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19871/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are crucial for predicting future climate changes by simulating the Earth systems. However, the GCM Outputs exhibit systematic biases due to model uncertainties, parameterization simplifications, and inadequate representation of complex climate phenomena. Traditional bias correction methods, which rely on historical observation data and statistical techniques, often neglect unobserved confounders, leading to biased results. This paper proposes a novel bias correction approach to utilize both GCM and observational data to learn a factor model that captures multi-cause latent confounders. Inspired by recent advances in causality based time series deconfounding, our method first constructs a factor model to learn latent confounders from historical data and then applies them to enhance the bias correction process using advanced time series forecasting models. The experimental results demonstrate significant improvements in the accuracy of precipitation outputs. By addressing unobserved confounders, our approach offers a robust and theoretically grounded solution for climate model bias correction.