# Crowd Intelligence for Early Misinformation Prediction on Social Media

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.04463 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.04463/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 50 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Aug 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [RoBERTa: A Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.11692/) (2019)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Deep Learning for Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.12693/) (2019)
- [RumourEval 2019: Determining Rumour Veracity and Support for Rumours](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.06683/) (2018)
- [Analysing How People Orient to and Spread Rumours in Social Media by Looking at Conversational Threads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.07487/) (2015)
- [Detect Rumors in Microblog Posts for Low-Resource Domains via Adversarial Contrastive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.08143/) (2022)
- [Zero-Shot Rumor Detection with Propagation Structure via Prompt Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.01117/) (2022)
- [Call Attention to Rumors: Deep Attention Based Recurrent Neural Networks for Early Rumor Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.05973/) (2017)
- [LESA: Linguistic Encapsulation and Semantic Amalgamation Based Generalised Claim Detection from Online Content](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.11891/) (2021)
- [Inconsistent Matters: A Knowledge-guided Dual-consistency Network for Multi-modal Rumor Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.02137/) (2023)
- [GAME-ON: Graph Attention Network based Multimodal Fusion for Fake News Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.12478/) (2022)
- [Adversarial Contrastive Learning for Evidence-aware Fake News Detection with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.05498/) (2022)
- [Reinforcement Tuning for Detecting Stances and Debunking Rumors Jointly with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.02143/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Uncovering the Bigger Picture: Comprehensive Event Understanding Via Diverse News Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.19758/) (2025)
- [The Psychology of Falsehood: A Human-Centric Survey of Misinformation Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.15896/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Misinformation spreads rapidly on social media, causing serious damage by influencing public opinion, promoting dangerous behavior, or eroding trust in reliable sources. It spreads too fast for traditional fact-checking, stressing the need for predictive methods. We introduce CROWDSHIELD, a crowd intelligence-based method for early misinformation prediction. We hypothesize that the crowd's reactions to misinformation reveal its accuracy. Furthermore, we hinge upon exaggerated assertions/claims and replies with particular positions/stances on the source post within a conversation thread. We employ Q-learning to capture the two dimensions -- stances and claims. We utilize deep Q-learning due to its proficiency in navigating complex decision spaces and effectively learning network properties. Additionally, we use a transformer-based encoder to develop a comprehensive understanding of both content and context. This multifaceted approach helps ensure the model pays attention to user interaction and stays anchored in the communication's content. We propose MIST, a manually annotated misinformation detection Twitter corpus comprising nearly 200 conversation threads with more than 14K replies. In experiments, CROWDSHIELD outperformed ten baseline systems, achieving an improvement of ~4% macro-F1 score. We conduct an ablation study and error analysis to validate our proposed model's performance. The source code and dataset are available at https://github.com/LCS2-IIITD/CrowdShield.git.