# Towards the Terminator Economy: Assessing Job Exposure to AI through LLMs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.19204 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.19204/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Jul 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Neural Machine Translation by Jointly Learning to Align and Translate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.0473/) (2014)
- [Finetuned Language Models Are Zero-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01652/) (2021)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [Survey of Hallucination in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03629/) (2022)
- [Effective Approaches to Attention-based Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1508.04025/) (2015)
- [MTEB: Massive Text Embedding Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.07316/) (2022)
- [Recent Advances in Natural Language Processing via Large Pre-Trained Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.01243/) (2021)
- [Orca: Progressive Learning from Complex Explanation Traces of GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.02707/) (2023)
- [OpenChat: Advancing Open-source Language Models with Mixed-Quality Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.11235/) (2023)
- [GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.10130/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [How Large Language Models play humans in online conversations: a simulated study of the 2016 US politics on Reddit](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.21620/) (2025)
- [What Work is AI Actually Doing? Uncovering the Drivers of Generative AI Adoption](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.23669/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

AI and related technologies are reshaping jobs and tasks, either by automating or augmenting human skills in the workplace. Many researchers have been working on estimating if and to what extent jobs and tasks are exposed to the risk of being automatized by AI-related technologies. Our work tackles this issue through a data-driven approach by: (i) developing a reproducible framework that uses cutting-edge open-source large language models to assess the current capabilities of AI and robotics in performing job-related tasks; (ii) formalizing and computing a measure of AI exposure by occupation, the Task Exposure to AI (TEAI) index, and a measure of Task Replacement by AI (TRAI), both validated through a human user evaluation and compared with the state of the art. Our results show that the TEAI index is positively correlated with cognitive, problem-solving and management skills, while it is negatively correlated with social skills. Applying the index to the US, we obtain that about one-third of US employment is highly exposed to AI, primarily in high-skill jobs requiring a graduate or postgraduate level of education. We also find that AI exposure is positively associated with both employment and wage growth in 2003-2023, suggesting that AI has an overall positive effect on productivity. Considering specifically the TRAI index, we find that even in high-skill occupations, AI exhibits high variability in task substitution, suggesting that AI and humans complement each other within the same occupation, while the allocation of tasks within occupations is likely to change. All results, models, and code are freely available online to allow the community to reproduce our results, compare outcomes, and use our work as a benchmark to monitor AI's progress over time.