# GPT Deciphering Fedspeak: Quantifying Dissent Among Hawks and Doves

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.19110 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.19110/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 2 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Jul 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Mitigating Dataset Harms Requires Stewardship: Lessons from 1000 Papers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.02922/) (2021)
- [CohortGPT: An Enhanced GPT for Participant Recruitment in Clinical Study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.11346/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Language Modeling for the Future of Finance: A Survey into Metrics, Tasks, and Data Opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.07274/) (2025)
- [Op-Fed: Opinion, Stance, and Monetary Policy Annotations on FOMC Transcripts Using Active Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.13539/) (2025)
- [Ornithologist: Towards Trustworthy "Reasoning" about Central Bank Communications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09083/) (2025)
- [Interpreting Fedspeak with Confidence: A LLM-Based Uncertainty-Aware Framework Guided by Monetary Policy Transmission Paths](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.08001/) (2025)
- [Mind the Shift: Decoding Monetary Policy Stance from FOMC Statements with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.14313/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Markets and policymakers around the world hang on the consequential monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Publicly available textual documentation of their meetings provides insight into members' attitudes about the economy. We use GPT-4 to quantify dissent among members on the topic of inflation. We find that transcripts and minutes reflect the diversity of member views about the macroeconomic outlook in a way that is lost or omitted from the public statements. In fact, diverging opinions that shed light upon the committee's "true" attitudes are almost entirely omitted from the final statements. Hence, we argue that forecasting FOMC sentiment based solely on statements will not sufficiently reflect dissent among the hawks and doves.