# On the use of Probabilistic Forecasting for Network Analysis in Open RAN

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.14375 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.14375/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 6 of its 13 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Jul 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Understanding O-RAN: Architecture, Interfaces, Algorithms, Security, and Research Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.01032/) (2022)
- [Programmable and Customized Intelligence for Traffic Steering in 5G Networks Using Open RAN Architectures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14171/) (2022)
- [On the Specialization of FDRL Agents for Scalable and Distributed 6G RAN Slicing Orchestration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.03088/) (2022)
- [Intelligent Traffic Steering in Beyond 5G Open RAN based on LSTM Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.08829/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Probabilistic Forecasting for Network Resource Analysis in Integrated Terrestrial and Non-Terrestrial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20658/) (2025)
- [PRB-RUPFormer: A Recursive Unified Probabilistic Transformer for Residual PRB Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.15363/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Unlike other single-point Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based prediction techniques, such as Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), probabilistic forecasting techniques (e.g., DeepAR and Transformer) provide a range of possible outcomes and associated probabilities that enable decision makers to make more informed and robust decisions. At the same time, the architecture of Open RAN has emerged as a revolutionary approach for mobile networks, aiming at openness, interoperability and innovation in the ecosystem of RAN. In this paper, we propose the use of probabilistic forecasting techniques as a radio App (rApp) within the Open RAN architecture. We investigate and compare different probabilistic and single-point forecasting methods and algorithms to estimate the utilization and resource demands of Physical Resource Blocks (PRBs) of cellular base stations. Through our evaluations, we demonstrate the numerical advantages of probabilistic forecasting techniques over traditional single-point forecasting methods and show that they are capable of providing more accurate and reliable estimates. In particular, DeepAR clearly outperforms single-point forecasting techniques such as LSTM and Seasonal-Naive (SN) baselines and other probabilistic forecasting techniques such as Simple-Feed-Forward (SFF) and Transformer neural networks.