# International Trade Flow Prediction with Bilateral Trade Provisions

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.13698 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13698/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 30 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Jun 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [Empowering Time Series Analysis with Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03182/) (2024)
- [Learning from Teaching Regularization: Generalizable Correlations Should be Easy to Imitate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02769/) (2024)
- [Time Series Modeling for Heart Rate Prediction: From ARIMA to Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.12199/) (2024)
- [AutoReP: Automatic ReLU Replacement for Fast Private Network Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.10134/) (2023)
- [CPSeg: Finer-grained Image Semantic Segmentation via Chain-of-Thought Language Prompting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16069/) (2023)
- [MaxK-GNN: Extremely Fast GPU Kernel Design for Accelerating Graph Neural Networks Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.08656/) (2023)
- [Visual Prompting Upgrades Neural Network Sparsification: A Data-Model Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.01397/) (2023)
- [A Length Adaptive Algorithm-Hardware Co-design of Transformer on FPGA Through Sparse Attention and Dynamic Pipelining](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.03646/) (2022)
- [Accel-GCN: High-Performance GPU Accelerator Design for Graph Convolution Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11825/) (2023)
- [TD3 Based Collision Free Motion Planning for Robot Navigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15460/) (2024)
- [RRNet: Towards ReLU-Reduced Neural Network for Two-party Computation Based Private Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.02292/) (2023)
- [A Hierarchical Spatial Transformer for Massive Point Samples in Continuous Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.04434/) (2023)
- [National Origin Discrimination in Deep-learning-powered Automated Resume Screening](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.08624/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper presents a novel methodology for predicting international bilateral trade flows, emphasizing the growing importance of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) in the global trade landscape. Acknowledging the limitations of traditional models like the Gravity Model of Trade, this study introduces a two-stage approach combining explainable machine learning and factorization models. The first stage employs SHAP Explainer for effective variable selection, identifying key provisions in PTAs, while the second stage utilizes Factorization Machine models to analyze the pairwise interaction effects of these provisions on trade flows. By analyzing comprehensive datasets, the paper demonstrates the efficacy of this approach. The findings not only enhance the predictive accuracy of trade flow models but also offer deeper insights into the complex dynamics of international trade, influenced by specific bilateral trade provisions.