# SurroFlow: A Flow-Based Surrogate Model for Parameter Space Exploration and Uncertainty Quantification

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12884 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.12884/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 Jul 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6114/) (2013)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Variational Inference with Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05770/) (2015)
- [Density estimation using Real NVP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.08803/) (2016)
- [Glow: Generative Flow with Invertible 1x1 Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03039/) (2018)
- [Normalizing Flows for Probabilistic Modeling and Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02762/) (2019)
- [InSituNet: Deep Image Synthesis for Parameter Space Exploration of Ensemble Simulations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.00407/) (2019)
- [GNN-Surrogate: A Hierarchical and Adaptive Graph Neural Network for Parameter Space Exploration of Unstructured-Mesh Ocean Simulations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.08956/) (2022)
- [VDL-Surrogate: A View-Dependent Latent-based Model for Parameter Space Exploration of Ensemble Simulations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.13091/) (2022)
- [PSRFlow: Probabilistic Super Resolution with Flow-Based Models for Scientific Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.04605/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [ConfEviSurrogate: A Conformalized Evidential Surrogate Model for Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.02919/) (2025)
- [FA-INR: Adaptive Implicit Neural Representations for Interpretable Exploration of Simulation Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06858/) (2025)
- [REV-INR: Regularized Evidential Implicit Neural Representation for Uncertainty-Aware Volume Visualization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.17689/) (2026)
- [Seeing the Many: Exploring Parameter Distributions Conditioned on Features in Surrogates](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.13088/) (2025)
- [Error Aware Distribution Prediction for Lightweight Implicit Neural Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.10068/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Existing deep learning-based surrogate models facilitate efficient data generation, but fall short in uncertainty quantification, efficient parameter space exploration, and reverse prediction. In our work, we introduce SurroFlow, a novel normalizing flow-based surrogate model, to learn the invertible transformation between simulation parameters and simulation outputs. The model not only allows accurate predictions of simulation outcomes for a given simulation parameter but also supports uncertainty quantification in the data generation process. Additionally, it enables efficient simulation parameter recommendation and exploration. We integrate SurroFlow and a genetic algorithm as the backend of a visual interface to support effective user-guided ensemble simulation exploration and visualization. Our framework significantly reduces the computational costs while enhancing the reliability and exploration capabilities of scientific surrogate models.