# Reasoning about unpredicted change and explicit time

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.06622 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.06622/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 2 of its 16 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Jul 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Penalty logic and its Link with Dempster-Shafer Theory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1302.6804/) (2013)
- [Modeling Uncertain Temporal Evolutions in Model-Based Diagnosis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1303.5424/) (2013)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reasoning about unpredicted change consists in explaining observations by events; we propose here an approach for explaining time-stamped observations by surprises, which are simple events consisting in the change of the truth value of a fluent. A framework for dealing with surprises is defined. Minimal sets of surprises are provided together with time intervals where each surprise has occurred, and they are characterized from a model-based diagnosis point of view. Then, a probabilistic approach of surprise minimisation is proposed.