# Latent Diffusion Model for Generating Ensembles of Climate Simulations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.02070 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.02070/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 10 of its 16 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Jul 2024.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10752/) (2021)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6114/) (2013)
- [Large Scale GAN Training for High Fidelity Natural Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.11096/) (2018)
- [GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.15796/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [A Probabilistic Approach to Wildfire Spread Prediction Using a Denoising Diffusion Surrogate Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.00761/) (2025)
- [Field-Space Autoencoder for Scalable Climate Emulators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.15102/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Obtaining accurate estimates of uncertainty in climate scenarios often requires generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate simulations, a computationally expensive and memory intensive process. To address this challenge, we train a novel generative deep learning approach on extensive sets of climate simulations. The model consists of two components: a variational autoencoder for dimensionality reduction and a denoising diffusion probabilistic model that generates multiple ensemble members. We validate our model on the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble and show that it achieves good agreement with the original ensemble in terms of variability. By leveraging the latent space representation, our model can rapidly generate large ensembles on-the-fly with minimal memory requirements, which can significantly improve the efficiency of uncertainty quantification in climate simulations.