# Improve ROI with Causal Learning and Conformal Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.01065 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.01065/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 41 of its 61 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Jul 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 41)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [Conformalized Quantile Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.03222/) (2019)
- [Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1510.04342/) (2015)
- [Meta-learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03461/) (2017)
- [Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.14193/) (2020)
- [Smart "Predict, then Optimize"](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.08005/) (2017)
- [Hands-on Bayesian Neural Networks -- a Tutorial for Deep Learning Users](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.06823/) (2020)
- [Quasi-Oracle Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.04912/) (2017)
- [Learning Representations for Counterfactual Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.03661/) (2016)
- [Generalized Random Forests](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.01271/) (2016)
- [Adapting Neural Networks for the Estimation of Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02120/) (2019)
- [Recent Advances in Adversarial Training for Adversarial Robustness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.01356/) (2021)
- [Melding the Data-Decisions Pipeline: Decision-Focused Learning for Combinatorial Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.05504/) (2018)
- [Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.06138/) (2020)
- [Nonparametric Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: From Theory to Learning Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.10943/) (2021)
- [Image-to-Image Regression with Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Applications in Imaging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05265/) (2022)
- [Automated versus do-it-yourself methods for causal inference: Lessons learned from a data analysis competition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.02641/) (2017)
- [On Inductive Biases for Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.03765/) (2021)
- [Real-Time Bidding with Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning in Display Advertising](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.09756/) (2018)
- [Offline Multi-Action Policy Learning: Generalization and Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04778/) (2018)
- [Decision-Focused Learning: Through the Lens of Learning to Rank](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.03609/) (2021)
- [Confidence Intervals for Random Forests: The Jackknife and the Infinitesimal Jackknife](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1311.4555/) (2013)
- [Uplift Modeling with Multiple Treatments and General Response Types](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08492/) (2017)
- [Bayesian regression tree models for causal inference: regularization, confounding, and heterogeneous effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.09523/) (2017)
- [A Unified Framework for Marketing Budget Allocation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.01128/) (2019)
- [Direct Heterogeneous Causal Learning for Resource Allocation Problems in Marketing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15728/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Jointly Optimizing Debiased CTR and Uplift for Coupons Marketing: A Unified Causal Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.12972/) (2026)
- [Hidden Representation Clustering with Multi-Task Representation Learning towards Robust Online Budget Allocation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.00959/) (2025)
- [Deep Learning of Continuous and Structured Policies for Aggregated Heterogeneous Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.05511/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In the commercial sphere, such as operations and maintenance, advertising, and marketing recommendations, intelligent decision-making utilizing data mining and neural network technologies is crucial, especially in resource allocation to optimize ROI. This study delves into the Cost-aware Binary Treatment Assignment Problem (C-BTAP) across different industries, with a focus on the state-of-the-art Direct ROI Prediction (DRP) method. However, the DRP model confronts issues like covariate shift and insufficient training data, hindering its real-world effectiveness. Addressing these challenges is essential for ensuring dependable and robust predictions in varied operational contexts. This paper presents a robust Direct ROI Prediction (rDRP) method, designed to address challenges in real-world deployment of neural network-based uplift models, particularly under conditions of covariate shift and insufficient training data. The rDRP method, enhancing the standard DRP model, does not alter the model's structure or require retraining. It utilizes conformal prediction and Monte Carlo dropout for interval estimation, adapting to model uncertainty and data distribution shifts. A heuristic calibration method, inspired by a Kaggle competition, combines point and interval estimates. The effectiveness of these approaches is validated through offline tests and online A/B tests in various settings, demonstrating significant improvements in target rewards compared to the state-of-the-art method.