# ConU: Conformal Uncertainty in Large Language Models with Correctness Coverage Guarantees

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.00499 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.00499/

## Key facts

- Cited by 65 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 24 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Jun 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Sentence-BERT: Sentence Embeddings using Siamese BERT-Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.10084/) (2019)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [DistilBERT, a distilled version of BERT: smaller, faster, cheaper and lighter](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.01108/) (2019)
- [Mistral 7B](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06825/) (2023)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [What Disease does this Patient Have? A Large-scale Open Domain Question Answering Dataset from Medical Exams](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.13081/) (2020)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [CoQA: A Conversational Question Answering Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.07042/) (2018)
- [Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18404/) (2023)
- [Language Models with Conformal Factuality Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10978/) (2024)
- [Benchmarking LLMs via Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.12794/) (2024)
- [GTBench: Uncovering the Strategic Reasoning Limitations of LLMs via Game-Theoretic Evaluations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12348/) (2024)
- [API Is Enough: Conformal Prediction for Large Language Models Without Logit-Access](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.01216/) (2024)
- [Mitigating LLM Hallucinations via Conformal Abstention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.01563/) (2024)
- [Conformal Prediction for Natural Language Processing: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.01976/) (2024)
- [Characterizing Truthfulness in Large Language Model Generations with Local Intrinsic Dimension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18048/) (2024)
- [Equal Opportunity of Coverage in Fair Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.02243/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 65)

- [A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models: Taxonomy, Open Research Challenges, and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.05563/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Quantification and Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.15850/) (2025)
- [LLaVA Steering: Visual Instruction Tuning with 500x Fewer Parameters through Modality Linear Representation-Steering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.12359/) (2024)
- [ASCD: Attention-Steerable Contrastive Decoding for Reducing Hallucination in MLLM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.14766/) (2025)
- [Analyzing Uncertainty of LLM-as-a-Judge: Interval Evaluations with Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.18658/) (2025)
- [Self-Evolving Multi-Agent Systems via Textual Backpropagation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.09046/) (2025)
- [CP-Router: An Uncertainty-Aware Router Between LLM and LRM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19970/) (2025)
- [Sample then Identify: A General Framework for Risk Control and Assessment in Multimodal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.08174/) (2024)
- [SCOPE: Selective Conformal Optimized Pairwise LLM Judging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13110/) (2026)
- [Reversal of Thought: Enhancing Large Language Models with Preference-Guided Reverse Reasoning Warm-up](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.12323/) (2024)
- [Conformal Prediction Sets for Deep Generative Models via Reduction to Conformal Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.10512/) (2025)
- [LEC: Linear Expectation Constraints for Selection-Conditioned Risk Control in Selective Prediction and Routing Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.01556/) (2025)
- [COPU: Conformal Prediction for Uncertainty Quantification in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12601/) (2025)
- [Simple Yet Effective: An Information-Theoretic Approach to Multi-LLM Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.07236/) (2025)
- [TECP: Token-Entropy Conformal Prediction for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.00461/) (2025)
- [Domain-Shift-Aware Conformal Prediction for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.05566/) (2025)
- [Uncertainty Quantification for Retrieval-Augmented Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.11483/) (2025)
- [Selective Risk Certification for LLM Outputs via Information-Lift Statistics: PAC-Bayes, Robustness, and Skeleton Design](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.12527/) (2025)
- [Conformal Lesion Segmentation for 3D Medical Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.17897/) (2025)
- [Geometry-Calibrated Conformal Abstention for Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.27914/) (2026)
- [Comparing Uncertainty Measurement and Mitigation Methods for Large Language Models: A Systematic Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.18346/) (2025)
- [CritiCal: Can Critique Help LLM Uncertainty or Confidence Calibration?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.24505/) (2025)
- [BalanceRAG: Joint Risk Calibration for Cascaded Retrieval-Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.20084/) (2026)
- [EchoRL: Reinforcement Learning via Rollout Echoing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.31228/) (2026)
- [Data-Driven Calibration of Prediction Sets in Large Vision-Language Models Based on Inductive Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.17671/) (2025)
- [Calibrated Predictive Lower Bounds on Time-to-Unsafe-Sampling in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13593/) (2025)
- [Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models for Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.15403/) (2025)
- [Two Calls, Two Moments, and the Vote-Accuracy Curve of Repeated LLM Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.03379/) (2026)
- [Coverage-Guaranteed Speech Emotion Recognition via Calibrated Uncertainty-Adaptive Prediction Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.22712/) (2025)
- [Statistical Management of the False Discovery Rate in Medical Instance Segmentation Based on Conformal Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.04482/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in natural language generation (NLG) tasks remains an open challenge, exacerbated by the closed-source nature of the latest large language models (LLMs). This study investigates applying conformal prediction (CP), which can transform any heuristic uncertainty notion into rigorous prediction sets, to black-box LLMs in open-ended NLG tasks. We introduce a novel uncertainty measure based on self-consistency theory, and then develop a conformal uncertainty criterion by integrating the uncertainty condition aligned with correctness into the CP algorithm. Empirical evaluations indicate that our uncertainty measure outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, we achieve strict control over the correctness coverage rate utilizing 7 popular LLMs on 4 free-form NLG datasets, spanning general-purpose and medical scenarios. Additionally, the calibrated prediction sets with small size further highlights the efficiency of our method in providing trustworthy guarantees for practical open-ended NLG applications.