# Emulation with uncertainty quantification of regional sea-level change caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.17729 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.17729/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 99 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 Jun 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

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- [A Hybrid Deep Neural Operator/Finite Element Method for Ice-Sheet Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.11402/) (2023)
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## Abstract (arXiv)

Projecting sea-level change in various climate-change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice mass change, which requires high computational cost and time. Here we build neural-network emulators of sea-level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are based on datasets produced using a numerical solver for the static sea-level equation and published ISMIP6-2100 ice-sheet model simulations referenced in the IPCC AR6 report. We show that the neural-network emulators have an accuracy that is competitive with baseline machine learning emulators. In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well-calibrated prediction intervals for simulated sea-level change via a linear regression postprocessing technique that uses (nonlinear) machine learning model outputs, a technique that has previously been applied to numerical climate models. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency: a feedforward neural-network emulator exhibits on the order of 100 times speedup in comparison to the numerical sea-level equation solver that is used for training.