# Causal Post-Processing of Predictive Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.09567 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09567/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Jun 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1510.04342/) (2015)
- [Meta-learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03461/) (2017)
- [Quasi-Oracle Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.04912/) (2017)
- [Recursive Partitioning for Heterogeneous Causal Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1504.01132/) (2015)
- [Automated versus do-it-yourself methods for causal inference: Lessons learned from a data analysis competition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.02641/) (2017)
- [Evaluating Treatment Prioritization Rules via Rank-Weighted Average Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.07966/) (2021)
- [Learning to rank for uplift modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05897/) (2020)
- [A Comparison of Methods for Treatment Assignment with an Application to Playlist Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.11532/) (2020)
- [Combining observational and experimental data to find heterogeneous treatment effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.02385/) (2016)
- [Machine Learning Who to Nudge: Causal vs Predictive Targeting in a Field Experiment on Student Financial Aid Renewal](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08672/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Organizations increasingly rely on predictive models to decide who should be targeted for interventions, such as marketing campaigns, customer retention offers, or medical treatments. Yet these models are usually built to predict outcomes (e.g., likelihood of purchase or churn), not the actual impact of an intervention. As a result, the scores (predicted values) they produce are often imperfect guides for allocating resources. Causal effects can be estimated with randomized experiments, but experiments are costly, limited in scale, and tied to specific actions. We propose causal post-processing (CPP), a family of techniques that uses limited experimental data to refine the outputs of predictive models, so they better align with causal decision making. The CPP family spans approaches that trade off flexibility against data efficiency, unifying existing methods and motivating new ones. Through simulations and an empirical study in digital advertising, we show that CPP can improve intervention decisions, particularly when predictive models capture a useful but imperfect causal signal. Our results show how organizations can combine predictive modeling with experimental evidence to make more effective and scalable intervention decisions.