# Deterministic Uncertainty Propagation for Improved Model-Based Offline Reinforcement Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.04088 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04088/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Offline RL algorithms, one of 13 directions in Offline RL and imitation learning from data.
- Builds on 44 of its 65 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Jun 2024.

## Placed in

- Offline RL and imitation learning from data / [Offline RL algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/offlinerl/offline-rl-algorithms/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 44)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Batch Normalization: Accelerating Deep Network Training by Reducing Internal Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.03167/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Addressing Function Approximation Error in Actor-Critic Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.09477/) (2018)
- [Offline Reinforcement Learning: Tutorial, Review, and Perspectives on Open Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.01643/) (2020)
- [Conservative Q-Learning for Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.04779/) (2020)
- [D4RL: Datasets for Deep Data-Driven Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07219/) (2020)
- [Off-Policy Deep Reinforcement Learning without Exploration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.02900/) (2018)
- [Soft Actor-Critic Algorithms and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.05905/) (2018)
- [A Minimalist Approach to Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.06860/) (2021)
- [Stabilizing Off-Policy Q-Learning via Bootstrapping Error Reduction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00949/) (2019)
- [Advantage-Weighted Regression: Simple and Scalable Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.00177/) (2019)
- [When to Trust Your Model: Model-Based Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.08253/) (2019)
- [Behavior Regularized Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11361/) (2019)
- [Offline Reinforcement Learning as One Big Sequence Modeling Problem](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.02039/) (2021)
- [MOPO: Model-based Offline Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.13239/) (2020)
- [MOReL : Model-Based Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.05951/) (2020)
- [COMBO: Conservative Offline Model-Based Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.08363/) (2021)
- [Is Pessimism Provably Efficient for Offline RL?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.15085/) (2020)
- [Transformers are Sample-Efficient World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.00588/) (2022)
- [Uncertainty-Based Offline Reinforcement Learning with Diversified Q-Ensemble](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.01548/) (2021)
- [Bellman-consistent Pessimism for Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.06926/) (2021)
- [Offline Reinforcement Learning with Fisher Divergence Critic Regularization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.08050/) (2021)
- [Keep Doing What Worked: Behavioral Modelling Priors for Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08396/) (2020)
- [Pessimistic Model-based Offline Reinforcement Learning under Partial Coverage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.06226/) (2021)
- [Model-Based Value Estimation for Efficient Model-Free Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.00101/) (2018)
- [Pessimistic Bootstrapping for Uncertainty-Driven Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11566/) (2022)
- [RAMBO-RL: Robust Adversarial Model-Based Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.12581/) (2022)
- [Adversarially Trained Actor Critic for Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.02446/) (2022)
- [COG: Connecting New Skills to Past Experience with Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.14500/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Assumed Density Filtering and Smoothing with Neural Network Surrogate Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.09016/) (2025)
- [Analytic Planning under Uncertainty with Moment Closure](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.02519/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Current approaches to model-based offline reinforcement learning often incorporate uncertainty-based reward penalization to address the distributional shift problem. These approaches, commonly known as pessimistic value iteration, use Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the Bellman target to perform temporal difference-based policy evaluation. We find out that the randomness caused by this sampling step significantly delays convergence. We present a theoretical result demonstrating the strong dependency of suboptimality on the number of Monte Carlo samples taken per Bellman target calculation. Our main contribution is a deterministic approximation to the Bellman target that uses progressive moment matching, a method developed originally for deterministic variational inference. The resulting algorithm, which we call Moment Matching Offline Model-Based Policy Optimization (MOMBO), propagates the uncertainty of the next state through a nonlinear Q-network in a deterministic fashion by approximating the distributions of hidden layer activations by a normal distribution. We show that it is possible to provide tighter guarantees for the suboptimality of MOMBO than the existing Monte Carlo sampling approaches. We also observe MOMBO to converge faster than these approaches in a large set of benchmark tasks.