# Detecting Model Misspecification in Amortized Bayesian Inference with Neural Networks: An Extended Investigation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.03154 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.03154/

## Key facts

- Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 46 of its 74 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Jun 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 46)

- [Generalized Out-of-Distribution Detection: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.11334/) (2021)
- [The frontier of simulation-based inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.01429/) (2019)
- [Kernel Mean Embedding of Distributions: A Review and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.09522/) (2016)
- [Analyzing Inverse Problems with Invertible Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.04730/) (2018)
- [Sequential Neural Likelihood: Fast Likelihood-free Inference with Autoregressive Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.07226/) (2018)
- [Automatic Posterior Transformation for Likelihood-Free Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07488/) (2019)
- [A Conceptual Introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.02434/) (2017)
- [Flexible statistical inference for mechanistic models of neural dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.01861/) (2017)
- [Benchmarking Simulation-Based Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.04653/) (2021)
- [Guided Image Generation with Conditional Invertible Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02392/) (2019)
- [BayesFlow: Learning complex stochastic models with invertible neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.06281/) (2020)
- [Validating Bayesian Inference Algorithms with Simulation-Based Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.06788/) (2018)
- [On Contrastive Learning for Likelihood-free Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.03712/) (2020)
- [Inconsistency of Bayesian Inference for Misspecified Linear Models, and a Proposal for Repairing It](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.3730/) (2014)
- [Disentanglement by Nonlinear ICA with General Incompressible-flow Networks (GIN)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.04872/) (2020)
- [Neural Approximate Sufficient Statistics for Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.10079/) (2020)
- [Concentration of tempered posteriors and of their variational approximations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.09293/) (2017)
- [Generalized Variational Inference: Three arguments for deriving new Posteriors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.02063/) (2019)
- [Bayesian Model Selection, the Marginal Likelihood, and Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11678/) (2022)
- [Robust Generalised Bayesian Inference for Intractable Likelihoods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.07359/) (2021)
- [Detecting Model Misspecification in Amortized Bayesian Inference with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.08866/) (2021)
- [Learning Robust Statistics for Simulation-based Inference under Model Misspecification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.15871/) (2023)
- [Assigning a value to a power likelihood in a general Bayesian model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.08515/) (2017)
- [Robust Neural Posterior Estimation and Statistical Model Criticism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.06564/) (2022)
- [Convergence Rates of Variational Posterior Distributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.02519/) (2017)
- [Investigating the Impact of Model Misspecification in Neural Simulation-based Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.01845/) (2022)
- [Robust Bayesian Inference for Simulator-based Models via the MMD Posterior Bootstrap](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.04744/) (2022)
- [JANA: Jointly Amortized Neural Approximation of Complex Bayesian Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09125/) (2023)
- [GATSBI: Generative Adversarial Training for Simulation-Based Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.06481/) (2022)
- [BayesFlow: Amortized Bayesian Workflows With Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.16015/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Simulation-Based Inference: A Practical Guide](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.12939/) (2025)
- [Effortless, Simulation-Efficient Bayesian Inference using Tabular Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.17660/) (2025)
- [Multifidelity Simulation-based Inference for Computationally Expensive Simulators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.08416/) (2025)
- [Tests for model misspecification in simulation-based inference: from local distortions to global model checks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15100/) (2024)
- [Minimum Distance Summaries for Robust Neural Posterior Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.09161/) (2026)
- [Cryo-em images are intrinsically low dimensional](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.11249/) (2025)
- [A Review of Diffusion-based Simulation-Based Inference: Foundations and Applications in Non-Ideal Data Scenarios](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.23748/) (2025)
- [Misspecification-robust amortised simulation-based inference using variational methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.05724/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Recent advances in probabilistic deep learning enable efficient amortized Bayesian inference in settings where the likelihood function is only implicitly defined by a simulation program (simulation-based inference; SBI). But how faithful is such inference if the simulation represents reality somewhat inaccurately, that is, if the true system behavior at test time deviates from the one seen during training? We conceptualize the types of such model misspecification arising in SBI and systematically investigate how the performance of neural posterior approximators gradually deteriorates as a consequence, making inference results less and less trustworthy. To notify users about this problem, we propose a new misspecification measure that can be trained in an unsupervised fashion (i.e., without training data from the true distribution) and reliably detects model misspecification at test time. Our experiments clearly demonstrate the utility of our new measure both on toy examples with an analytical ground-truth and on representative scientific tasks in cell biology, cognitive decision making, disease outbreak dynamics, and computer vision. We show how the proposed misspecification test warns users about suspicious outputs, raises an alarm when predictions are not trustworthy, and guides model designers in their search for better simulators.