# Predictive Uncertainty Quantification for Bird's Eye View Segmentation: A Benchmark and Novel Loss Function

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.20986 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.20986/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 33 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 31 May 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 33)

- [EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11946/) (2019)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11027/) (2019)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [CARLA: An Open Urban Driving Simulator](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.03938/) (2017)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Energy-based Out-of-distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03759/) (2020)
- [Lift, Splat, Shoot: Encoding Images From Arbitrary Camera Rigs by Implicitly Unprojecting to 3D](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.05711/) (2020)
- [BEVFusion: Multi-Task Multi-Sensor Fusion with Unified Bird's-Eye View Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13542/) (2022)
- [Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01768/) (2018)
- [BEVDet: High-performance Multi-camera 3D Object Detection in Bird-Eye-View](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.11790/) (2021)
- [Cross-view Transformers for real-time Map-view Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.02833/) (2022)
- [FIERY: Future Instance Prediction in Bird's-Eye View from Surround Monocular Cameras](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10490/) (2021)
- [Posterior Network: Uncertainty Estimation without OOD Samples via Density-Based Pseudo-Counts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.09239/) (2020)
- [Evaluating Bayesian Deep Learning Methods for Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.12709/) (2018)
- [Simple-BEV: What Really Matters for Multi-Sensor BEV Perception?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07959/) (2022)
- [Uncertainty Aware Semi-Supervised Learning on Graph Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.12783/) (2020)
- [Be Confident! Towards Trustworthy Graph Neural Networks via Confidence Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.14285/) (2021)
- [Graph Posterior Network: Bayesian Predictive Uncertainty for Node Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14012/) (2021)
- [Pitfalls of Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification through Loss Minimisation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.06102/) (2022)
- [Uncertainty-aware Vision-based Metric Cross-view Geolocalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.12145/) (2022)
- [Benchmarking and Improving Bird's Eye View Perception Robustness in Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17426/) (2024)
- [Deep Deterministic Uncertainty for Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.00079/) (2021)
- [MUAD: Multiple Uncertainties for Autonomous Driving, a benchmark for multiple uncertainty types and tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.01437/) (2022)
- [PointBeV: A Sparse Approach to BeV Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00703/) (2023)
- [MapPrior: Bird's-Eye View Map Layout Estimation with Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.12963/) (2023)
- [Hyper Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Composite Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.10980/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Estimation on Sequential Labeling via Uncertainty Transmission](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08726/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [NRSeg: Noise-Resilient Learning for BEV Semantic Segmentation via Driving World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.04002/) (2025)
- [Ensemble-Based Dirichlet Modeling for Predictive Uncertainty and Selective Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.06032/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The fusion of raw sensor data to create a Bird's Eye View (BEV) representation is critical for autonomous vehicle planning and control. Despite the growing interest in using deep learning models for BEV semantic segmentation, anticipating segmentation errors and enhancing the explainability of these models remain underexplored. This paper introduces a comprehensive benchmark for predictive uncertainty quantification in BEV segmentation, evaluating multiple uncertainty quantification methods across three popular datasets with three representative network architectures. Our study focuses on the effectiveness of quantified uncertainty in detecting misclassified and out-of-distribution (OOD) pixels while also improving model calibration. Through empirical analysis, we uncover challenges in existing uncertainty quantification methods and demonstrate the potential of evidential deep learning techniques, which capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. To address these challenges, we propose a novel loss function, Uncertainty-Focal-Cross-Entropy (UFCE), specifically designed for highly imbalanced data, along with a simple uncertainty-scaling regularization term that improves both uncertainty quantification and model calibration for BEV segmentation.