# Verifiably Robust Conformal Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.18942 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.18942/

## Key facts

- Cited by 10 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 May 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Explaining and Harnessing Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6572/) (2014)
- [Towards Deep Learning Models Resistant to Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.06083/) (2017)
- [Intriguing properties of neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6199/) (2013)
- [Certified Adversarial Robustness via Randomized Smoothing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.02918/) (2019)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [Reluplex: An Efficient SMT Solver for Verifying Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.01135/) (2017)
- [Conformalized Quantile Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.03222/) (2019)
- [Efficient Neural Network Robustness Certification with General Activation Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.00866/) (2018)
- [Wild Patterns: Ten Years After the Rise of Adversarial Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.03141/) (2017)
- [Provably Robust Deep Learning via Adversarially Trained Smoothed Classifiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.04584/) (2019)
- [On the Effectiveness of Interval Bound Propagation for Training Verifiably Robust Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.12715/) (2018)
- [PettingZoo: Gym for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.14471/) (2020)
- [Fast and Complete: Enabling Complete Neural Network Verification with Rapid and Massively Parallel Incomplete Verifiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13824/) (2020)
- [Formal Security Analysis of Neural Networks using Symbolic Intervals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.10829/) (2018)
- [Provably Robust Conformal Prediction with Improved Efficiency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.19651/) (2024)
- [Probabilistically robust conformal prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.16360/) (2023)
- [Tight Verification of Probabilistic Robustness in Bayesian Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.11627/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Game-Theoretic Defenses for Robust Conformal Prediction Against Adversarial Attacks in Medical Imaging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.04376/) (2024)
- [Enhancing Adversarial Robustness with Conformal Prediction: A Framework for Guaranteed Model Reliability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.07804/) (2025)
- [Provably Reliable Conformal Prediction Sets in the Presence of Data Poisoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.09878/) (2024)
- [Efficient Robust Conformal Prediction via Lipschitz-Bounded Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.05434/) (2025)
- [One Sample is Enough to Make Conformal Prediction Robust](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.16553/) (2025)
- [Probabilistic Robustness Analysis in High Dimensional Space: Application to Semantic Segmentation Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.11838/) (2025)
- [Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models for Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.15403/) (2025)
- [CertDW: Towards Certified Dataset Ownership Verification via Conformal Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13160/) (2025)
- [DistMatch: Adaptive Binning via Distribution Matching for Robust Sequential Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00690/) (2026)
- [Verifiable abstention makes AI leak diagnosis accountable in urban water distribution networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.18836/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular uncertainty quantification method that provides distribution-free, statistically valid prediction sets, assuming that training and test data are exchangeable. In such a case, CP's prediction sets are guaranteed to cover the (unknown) true test output with a user-specified probability. Nevertheless, this guarantee is violated when the data is subjected to adversarial attacks, which often result in a significant loss of coverage. Recently, several approaches have been put forward to recover CP guarantees in this setting. These approaches leverage variations of randomised smoothing to produce conservative sets which account for the effect of the adversarial perturbations. They are, however, limited in that they only support ℓ2-bounded perturbations and classification tasks. This paper introduces VRCP (Verifiably Robust Conformal Prediction), a new framework that leverages recent neural network verification methods to recover coverage guarantees under adversarial attacks. Our VRCP method is the first to support perturbations bounded by arbitrary norms including ℓ1, ℓ2, and ℓ^∞, as well as regression tasks. We evaluate and compare our approach on image classification tasks (CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and TinyImageNet) and regression tasks for deep reinforcement learning environments. In every case, VRCP achieves above nominal coverage and yields significantly more efficient and informative prediction regions than the SotA.