# Beware of Overestimated Decoding Performance Arising from Temporal Autocorrelations in Electroencephalogram Signals

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.17024 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17024/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 27 May 2024.

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Cross-Subject Generalization in Decoding Perceived Speech from Non-Invasive Brain Recordings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.22420/) (2026)
- [Multi-class Decoding of Attended Speaker Direction Using Electroencephalogram and Audio Spatial Spectrum](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.06928/) (2024)
- [SHINE: Sequential Hierarchical Integration Network for EEG and MEG](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.23960/) (2026)
- [The Role of Review Process Failures in Affective State Estimation: An Empirical Investigation of DEAP Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.02417/) (2025)
- [Breaking Shortcut Learning for Cross-Trial EEG-Guided Target Speech Extraction via Two-Stage Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.24164/) (2026)
- [Beyond Parallel Tracking: Interactive Multi-Feature Fusion Drives Semantic Reconstruction from Non-invasive Brain Recordings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.12071/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Researchers have reported high decoding accuracy (>95%) using non-invasive Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals for brain-computer interface (BCI) decoding tasks like image decoding, emotion recognition, auditory spatial attention detection, etc. Since these EEG data were usually collected with well-designed paradigms in labs, the reliability and robustness of the corresponding decoding methods were doubted by some researchers, and they argued that such decoding accuracy was overestimated due to the inherent temporal autocorrelation of EEG signals. However, the coupling between the stimulus-driven neural responses and the EEG temporal autocorrelations makes it difficult to confirm whether this overestimation exists in truth. Furthermore, the underlying pitfalls behind overestimated decoding accuracy have not been fully explained due to a lack of appropriate formulation. In this work, we formulate the pitfall in various EEG decoding tasks in a unified framework. EEG data were recorded from watermelons to remove stimulus-driven neural responses. Labels were assigned to continuous EEG according to the experimental design for EEG recording of several typical datasets, and then the decoding methods were conducted. The results showed the label can be successfully decoded as long as continuous EEG data with the same label were split into training and test sets. Further analysis indicated that high accuracy of various BCI decoding tasks could be achieved by associating labels with EEG intrinsic temporal autocorrelation features. These results underscore the importance of choosing the right experimental designs and data splits in BCI decoding tasks to prevent inflated accuracies due to EEG temporal autocorrelation.