# Conditional Shift-Robust Conformal Prediction for Graph Neural Network

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.11968 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.11968/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 56 of its 83 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 May 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 56)

- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Neural Message Passing for Quantum Chemistry](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.01212/) (2017)
- [Convolutional Neural Networks on Graphs with Fast Localized Spectral Filtering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.09375/) (2016)
- [Predict then Propagate: Graph Neural Networks meet Personalized PageRank](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.05997/) (2018)
- [Geom-GCN: Geometric Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05287/) (2020)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [TUDataset: A collection of benchmark datasets for learning with graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.08663/) (2020)
- [On the Bottleneck of Graph Neural Networks and its Practical Implications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.05205/) (2020)
- [Multi-scale Attributed Node Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.13021/) (2019)
- [Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.06019/) (2019)
- [Understanding over-squashing and bottlenecks on graphs via curvature](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.14522/) (2021)
- [Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coverage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.02544/) (2020)
- [Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.00170/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.14193/) (2020)
- [Conformal Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.02814/) (2022)
- [Towards Deeper Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.09296/) (2020)
- [Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.02703/) (2021)
- [Mix-n-Match: Ensemble and Compositional Methods for Uncertainty Calibration in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.07329/) (2020)
- [Conformal Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10193/) (2023)
- [Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07282/) (2022)
- [Conformal Inference of Counterfactuals and Individual Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.06138/) (2020)
- [A Survey of Graph Neural Networks for Recommender Systems: Challenges, Methods, and Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.12843/) (2021)
- [Directional Graph Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02863/) (2020)
- [Conformal Inference for Online Prediction with Arbitrary Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.08401/) (2022)
- [FoSR: First-order spectral rewiring for addressing oversquashing in GNNs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.11790/) (2022)
- [Revisiting Over-smoothing and Over-squashing Using Ollivier-Ricci Curvature](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15779/) (2022)
- [Out-Of-Distribution Generalization on Graphs: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07987/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [RoCP-GNN: Robust Conformal Prediction for Graph Neural Networks in Node-Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.13825/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as potent tools for predicting outcomes in graph-structured data. Despite their efficacy, a significant drawback of GNNs lies in their limited ability to provide robust uncertainty estimates, posing challenges to their reliability in contexts where errors carry significant consequences. Moreover, GNNs typically excel in in-distribution settings, assuming that training and test data follow identical distributions a condition often unmet in real world graph data scenarios. In this article, we leverage conformal prediction, a widely recognized statistical technique for quantifying uncertainty by transforming predictive model outputs into prediction sets, to address uncertainty quantification in GNN predictions amidst conditional shiftfootnoteRepresenting the change in conditional probability distribution (P(label|input)) from source domain to target domain. in graph-based semi-supervised learning (SSL). Additionally, we propose a novel loss function aimed at refining model predictions by minimizing conditional shift in latent stages. Termed Conditional Shift Robust (CondSR) conformal prediction for GNNs, our approach CondSR is model-agnostic and adaptable to various classification models. We validate the effectiveness of our method on standard graph benchmark datasets, integrating it with state-of-the-art GNNs in node classification tasks. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our approach consistently achieves any predefined target marginal coverage, enhances the accuracy of state of the art GNN models by up to 12% under conditional shift, and reduces the prediction set size by up to 48%. The code implementation is publicly available for further exploration and experimentation.