# Localized Adaptive Risk Control

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.07976 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.07976/

## Key facts

- Cited by 17 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 May 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Kvasir-SEG: A Segmented Polyp Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.07069/) (2019)
- [PraNet: Parallel Reverse Attention Network for Polyp Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11392/) (2020)
- [Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.00170/) (2021)
- [Conformal Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.02814/) (2022)
- [A Benchmark for Endoluminal Scene Segmentation of Colonoscopy Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00799/) (2016)
- [Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07282/) (2022)
- [Conformal Prediction With Conditional Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.12616/) (2023)
- [Conformal PID Control for Time Series Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.16895/) (2023)
- [Improved Online Conformal Prediction via Strongly Adaptive Online Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.07869/) (2023)
- [Practical Adversarial Multivalid Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.01067/) (2022)
- [Online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01139/) (2024)
- [Conformal Decision Theory: Safe Autonomous Decisions from Imperfect Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.05921/) (2023)
- [Achieving Risk Control in Online Learning Settings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09095/) (2022)
- [Fruit recognition from images using deep learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.00580/) (2017)
- [Conformal Prediction with Learned Features](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.17487/) (2024)
- [Forking Uncertainties: Reliable Prediction and Model Predictive Control with Sequence Models via Conformal Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10299/) (2023)
- [Fair Risk Control: A Generalized Framework for Calibrating Multi-group Fairness Risks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.02225/) (2024)
- [Online Calibrated and Conformal Prediction Improves Bayesian Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.04620/) (2021)
- [Bayesian Optimization with Formal Safety Guarantees via Online Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.17815/) (2023)
- [Optimally Compressed Nonparametric Online Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.11555/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Decision Theoretic Foundations for Conformal Prediction: Optimal Uncertainty Quantification for Risk-Averse Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.02561/) (2025)
- [Mirror Online Conformal Prediction with Intermittent Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.10345/) (2025)
- [On the Provable Performance Guarantee of Efficient Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.09133/) (2025)
- [Conformal Prediction for Time-series Forecasting with Change Points](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.02844/) (2025)
- [Distributed Conformal Prediction via Message Passing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.14544/) (2025)
- [Dynamic Estimation Loss Control in Variational Quantum Sensing via Online Conformal Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23389/) (2025)
- [Optimal Decision-Making Based on Prediction Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.00989/) (2026)
- [Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Action Conditional Guarantee](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.05551/) (2026)
- [Single Trajectory Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01570/) (2024)
- [Robust Bayesian Optimization via Localized Online Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.17387/) (2024)
- [Conformal Sparsification for Bandwidth-Efficient Edge-Cloud Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.09942/) (2025)
- [HyPAC: Cost-Efficient LLMs-Human Hybrid Annotation with PAC Error Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.02550/) (2026)
- [Conformal Changepoint Localization and Root Cause Analysis with Corrupted Observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.26481/) (2026)
- [Attention-Based Feature Online Conformal Prediction for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.15838/) (2025)
- [Online Conformal Prediction with Corrupted Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.20515/) (2026)
- [TRACE-CRC: Trajectory-Adaptive Conformal Risk Control for Multi-Step Channel State Information Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.27124/) (2026)
- [Conformal Sequential Decision Making With Cost and Sublinear Policy Regret Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.15011/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Adaptive Risk Control (ARC) is an online calibration strategy based on set prediction that offers worst-case deterministic long-term risk control, as well as statistical marginal coverage guarantees. ARC adjusts the size of the prediction set by varying a single scalar threshold based on feedback from past decisions. In this work, we introduce Localized Adaptive Risk Control (L-ARC), an online calibration scheme that targets statistical localized risk guarantees ranging from conditional risk to marginal risk, while preserving the worst-case performance of ARC. L-ARC updates a threshold function within a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), with the kernel determining the level of localization of the statistical risk guarantee. The theoretical results highlight a trade-off between localization of the statistical risk and convergence speed to the long-term risk target. Thanks to localization, L-ARC is demonstrated via experiments to produce prediction sets with risk guarantees across different data subpopulations, significantly improving the fairness of the calibrated model for tasks such as image segmentation and beam selection in wireless networks.