# CaFA: Global Weather Forecasting with Factorized Attention on Sphere

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.07395 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.07395/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 49 of its 84 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 May 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 49)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.06450/) (2016)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [Neural Machine Translation by Jointly Learning to Align and Translate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.0473/) (2014)
- [FlashAttention: Fast and Memory-Efficient Exact Attention with IO-Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14135/) (2022)
- [Longformer: The Long-Document Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.05150/) (2020)
- [Fourier Neural Operator for Parametric Partial Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.08895/) (2020)
- [FiLM: Visual Reasoning with a General Conditioning Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.07871/) (2017)
- [Implicit Neural Representations with Periodic Activation Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.09661/) (2020)
- [Rethinking Attention with Performers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.14794/) (2020)
- [Learning to Simulate Complex Physics with Graph Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09405/) (2020)
- [Directional Message Passing for Molecular Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.03123/) (2020)
- [Axial Attention in Multidimensional Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.12180/) (2019)
- [Choose a Transformer: Fourier or Galerkin](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.14995/) (2021)
- [GemNet: Universal Directional Graph Neural Networks for Molecules](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.08903/) (2021)
- [ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.10343/) (2023)
- [GNOT: A General Neural Operator Transformer for Operator Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.14376/) (2023)
- [Transformer for Partial Differential Equations' Operator Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13671/) (2022)
- [FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12873/) (2023)
- [Spherical Fourier Neural Operators: Learning Stable Dynamics on the Sphere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03838/) (2023)
- [FractalNet: Ultra-Deep Neural Networks without Residuals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.07648/) (2016)
- [FourCastNet: Accelerating Global High-Resolution Weather Forecasting using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05419/) (2022)
- [GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.15796/) (2023)
- [FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Lead](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02948/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Text2PDE: Latent Diffusion Models for Accessible Physics Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.01153/) (2024)
- [Zero-Shot Uncertainty Quantification using Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.04718/) (2024)
- [CirT: Global Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasting with Geometry-inspired Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.19750/) (2025)
- [Spectral-Refiner: Accurate Fine-Tuning of Spatiotemporal Fourier Neural Operator for Turbulent Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17211/) (2024)
- [Predicting Change, Not States: An Alternate Framework for Neural PDE Surrogates](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.13074/) (2024)
- [Pretraining a Neural Operator in Lower Dimensions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.17616/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate weather forecasting is crucial in various sectors, impacting decision-making processes and societal events. Data-driven approaches based on machine learning models have recently emerged as a promising alternative to numerical weather prediction models given their potential to capture physics of different scales from historical data and the significantly lower computational cost during the prediction stage. Renowned for its state-of-the-art performance across diverse domains, the Transformer model has also gained popularity in machine learning weather prediction. Yet applying Transformer architectures to weather forecasting, particularly on a global scale is computationally challenging due to the quadratic complexity of attention and the quadratic increase in spatial points as resolution increases. In this work, we propose a factorized-attention-based model tailored for spherical geometries to mitigate this issue. More specifically, it utilizes multi-dimensional factorized kernels that convolve over different axes where the computational complexity of the kernel is only quadratic to the axial resolution instead of overall resolution. The deterministic forecasting accuracy of the proposed model on 1.5^circ and 0-7 days' lead time is on par with state-of-the-art purely data-driven machine learning weather prediction models. We also showcase the proposed model holds great potential to push forward the Pareto front of accuracy-efficiency for Transformer weather models, where it can achieve better accuracy with less computational cost compared to Transformer based models with standard attention.