# Modeling Pedestrian Intrinsic Uncertainty for Multimodal Stochastic Trajectory Prediction via Energy Plan Denoising

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.07164 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.07164/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 30 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 May 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10892/) (2018)
- [Social-STGCNN: A Social Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Network for Human Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.11927/) (2020)
- [DESIRE: Distant Future Prediction in Dynamic Scenes with Interacting Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04394/) (2017)
- [SoPhie: An Attentive GAN for Predicting Paths Compliant to Social and Physical Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01482/) (2018)
- [It Is Not the Journey but the Destination: Endpoint Conditioned Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.02025/) (2020)
- [Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.06113/) (2019)
- [Social-BiGAT: Multimodal Trajectory Forecasting using Bicycle-GAN and Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.03395/) (2019)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Transformer Networks for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.08514/) (2020)
- [Social Attention: Modeling Attention in Human Crowds](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.04689/) (2017)
- [Stochastic Trajectory Prediction via Motion Indeterminacy Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.13777/) (2022)
- [Transformer Networks for Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.08111/) (2020)
- [PRECOG: PREdiction Conditioned On Goals in Visual Multi-Agent Settings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.01296/) (2019)
- [Leapfrog Diffusion Model for Stochastic Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.10895/) (2023)
- [MG-GAN: A Multi-Generator Model Preventing Out-of-Distribution Samples in Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09274/) (2021)
- [Trajectory Prediction with Latent Belief Energy-Based Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.03086/) (2021)
- [Diffusion-Augmented Depth Prediction with Sparse Annotations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.02283/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Generative AI for Autonomous Driving: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15863/) (2025)
- [Recent Advances in Multi-Agent Human Trajectory Prediction: A Comprehensive Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.14831/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Pedestrian trajectory prediction plays a pivotal role in the realms of autonomous driving and smart cities. Despite extensive prior research employing sequence and generative models, the unpredictable nature of pedestrians, influenced by their social interactions and individual preferences, presents challenges marked by uncertainty and multimodality. In response, we propose the Energy Plan Denoising (EPD) model for stochastic trajectory prediction. EPD initially provides a coarse estimation of the distribution of future trajectories, termed the Plan, utilizing the Langevin Energy Model. Subsequently, it refines this estimation through denoising via the Probabilistic Diffusion Model. By initiating denoising with the Plan, EPD effectively reduces the need for iterative steps, thereby enhancing efficiency. Furthermore, EPD differs from conventional approaches by modeling the distribution of trajectories instead of individual trajectories. This allows for the explicit modeling of pedestrian intrinsic uncertainties and eliminates the need for multiple denoising operations. A single denoising operation produces a distribution from which multiple samples can be drawn, significantly enhancing efficiency. Moreover, EPD's fine-tuning of the Plan contributes to improved model performance. We validate EPD on two publicly available datasets, where it achieves state-of-the-art results. Additionally, ablation experiments underscore the contributions of individual modules, affirming the efficacy of the proposed approach.