# Can ChatGPT Make Explanatory Inferences? Benchmarks for Abductive Reasoning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.18982 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.18982/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning benchmarks and evaluation, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 6 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Apr 2024.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reasoning benchmarks and evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reasoning-benchmarks-and-evaluation/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12712/) (2023)
- [Emergent Analogical Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09196/) (2022)
- [A Theory for Emergence of Complex Skills in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15936/) (2023)
- [The Impact of Large Language Models on Scientific Discovery: a Preliminary Study using GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07361/) (2023)
- [Comparing Machines and Children: Using Developmental Psychology Experiments to Assess the Strengths and Weaknesses of LaMDA Responses](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.11243/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Imagining and building wise machines: The centrality of AI metacognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.02478/) (2024)
- [LogiDynamics: Unraveling the Dynamics of Inductive, Abductive and Deductive Logical Inferences in LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.11176/) (2025)
- [Controllable Logical Hypothesis Generation for Abductive Reasoning in Knowledge Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.20948/) (2025)
- [Unifying Deductive and Abductive Reasoning in Knowledge Graphs with Masked Diffusion Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.11462/) (2025)
- [Reasoning about Affordances: Causal and Compositional Reasoning in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.16606/) (2025)
- [HypoAgent: An Agentic Framework for Interactive Abductive Hypothesis Generation over Knowledge Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.31370/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Explanatory inference is the creation and evaluation of hypotheses that provide explanations, and is sometimes known as abduction or abductive inference. Generative AI is a new set of artificial intelligence models based on novel algorithms for generating text, images, and sounds. This paper proposes a set of benchmarks for assessing the ability of AI programs to perform explanatory inference, and uses them to determine the extent to which ChatGPT, a leading generative AI model, is capable of making explanatory inferences. Tests on the benchmarks reveal that ChatGPT performs creative and evaluative inferences in many domains, although it is limited to verbal and visual modalities. Claims that ChatGPT and similar models are incapable of explanation, understanding, causal reasoning, meaning, and creativity are rebutted.