# Using a Local Surrogate Model to Interpret Temporal Shifts in Global Annual Data

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.11874 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.11874/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 15 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Apr 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [FLAML: A Fast and Lightweight AutoML Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.04706/) (2019)
- [TS-MULE: Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations for Time Series Forecast Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.08438/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Surrogate Modeling for Explainable Predictive Time Series Corrections](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.19897/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper focuses on explaining changes over time in globally-sourced, annual temporal data, with the specific objective of identifying pivotal factors that contribute to these temporal shifts. Leveraging such analytical frameworks can yield transformative impacts, including the informed refinement of public policy and the identification of key drivers affecting a country's economic evolution. We employ Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) to shed light on national happiness indices, economic freedom, and population metrics, spanning variable time frames. Acknowledging the presence of missing values, we employ three imputation approaches to generate robust multivariate time-series datasets apt for LIME's input requirements. Our methodology's efficacy is substantiated through a series of empirical evaluations involving multiple datasets. These evaluations include comparative analyses against random feature selection, correlation with real-world events as elucidated by LIME, and validation through Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) plots, a state-of-the-art technique proficient in feature importance detection.