# Predictive Model Development to Identify Failed Healing in Patients after Non-Union Fracture Surgery

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.11760 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.11760/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 2 of its 16 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Apr 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Deep Neural Networks and Tabular Data: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.01889/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Bone non-union is among the most severe complications associated with trauma surgery, occurring in 10-30% of cases after long bone fractures. Treating non-unions requires a high level of surgical expertise and often involves multiple revision surgeries, sometimes even leading to amputation. Thus, more accurate prognosis is crucial for patient well-being. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) hold promise for developing models to predict non-union healing, even when working with smaller datasets, a commonly encountered challenge in clinical domains. To demonstrate the effectiveness of ML in identifying candidates at risk of failed non-union healing, we applied three ML models (logistic regression, support vector machine, and XGBoost) to the clinical dataset TRUFFLE, which includes 797 patients with long bone non-union. The models provided prediction results with 70% sensitivity, and the specificities of 66% (XGBoost), 49% (support vector machine), and 43% (logistic regression). These findings offer valuable clinical insights because they enable early identification of patients at risk of failed non-union healing after the initial surgical revision treatment protocol.