# Predicting Long-horizon Futures by Conditioning on Geometry and Time

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.11554 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.11554/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 62 of its 76 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Apr 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 62)

- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10752/) (2021)
- [Microsoft COCO: Common Objects in Context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1405.0312/) (2014)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Visual Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08485/) (2023)
- [Masked Autoencoders Are Scalable Vision Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.06377/) (2021)
- [Photorealistic Text-to-Image Diffusion Models with Deep Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11487/) (2022)
- [Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.12598/) (2022)
- [Zero-Shot Text-to-Image Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.12092/) (2021)
- [Quo Vadis, Action Recognition? A New Model and the Kinetics Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07750/) (2017)
- [DreamFusion: Text-to-3D using 2D Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14988/) (2022)
- [Stable Video Diffusion: Scaling Latent Video Diffusion Models to Large Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.15127/) (2023)
- [Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03458/) (2022)
- [Imagen Video: High Definition Video Generation with Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02303/) (2022)
- [Make-A-Video: Text-to-Video Generation without Text-Video Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14792/) (2022)
- [Towards Robust Monocular Depth Estimation: Mixing Datasets for Zero-shot Cross-dataset Transfer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.01341/) (2019)
- [Zero-1-to-3: Zero-shot One Image to 3D Object](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11328/) (2023)
- [VideoMAE: Masked Autoencoders are Data-Efficient Learners for Self-Supervised Video Pre-Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.12602/) (2022)
- [Tune-A-Video: One-Shot Tuning of Image Diffusion Models for Text-to-Video Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.11565/) (2022)
- [MVDream: Multi-view Diffusion for 3D Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.16512/) (2023)
- [LRM: Large Reconstruction Model for Single Image to 3D](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.04400/) (2023)
- [Argoverse: 3D Tracking and Forecasting with Rich Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02620/) (2019)
- [Argoverse 2: Next Generation Datasets for Self-Driving Perception and Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.00493/) (2023)
- [ZoeDepth: Zero-shot Transfer by Combining Relative and Metric Depth](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.12288/) (2023)
- [Common Objects in 3D: Large-Scale Learning and Evaluation of Real-life 3D Category Reconstruction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.00512/) (2021)
- [Language Model Beats Diffusion -- Tokenizer is Key to Visual Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.05737/) (2023)
- [GAIA-1: A Generative World Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17080/) (2023)
- [VideoMAE V2: Scaling Video Masked Autoencoders with Dual Masking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16727/) (2023)
- [Latent-NeRF for Shape-Guided Generation of 3D Shapes and Textures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.07600/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Reconstruct, Inpaint, Test-Time Finetune: Dynamic Novel-view Synthesis from Monocular Videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.12646/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Our work explores the task of generating future sensor observations conditioned on the past. We are motivated by `predictive coding' concepts from neuroscience as well as robotic applications such as self-driving vehicles. Predictive video modeling is challenging because the future may be multi-modal and learning at scale remains computationally expensive for video processing. To address both challenges, our key insight is to leverage the large-scale pretraining of image diffusion models which can handle multi-modality. We repurpose image models for video prediction by conditioning on new frame timestamps. Such models can be trained with videos of both static and dynamic scenes. To allow them to be trained with modestly-sized datasets, we introduce invariances by factoring out illumination and texture by forcing the model to predict (pseudo) depth, readily obtained for in-the-wild videos via off-the-shelf monocular depth networks. In fact, we show that simply modifying networks to predict grayscale pixels already improves the accuracy of video prediction. Given the extra controllability with timestamp conditioning, we propose sampling schedules that work better than the traditional autoregressive and hierarchical sampling strategies. Motivated by probabilistic metrics from the object forecasting literature, we create a benchmark for video prediction on a diverse set of videos spanning indoor and outdoor scenes and a large vocabulary of objects. Our experiments illustrate the effectiveness of learning to condition on timestamps, and show the importance of predicting the future with invariant modalities.