# Enhancing Confidence Expression in Large Language Models Through Learning from Past Experience

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.10315 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.10315/

## Key facts

- Cited by 21 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 25 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 Apr 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 25 of 25)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Direct Preference Optimization: Your Language Model is Secretly a Reward Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18290/) (2023)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Learning to summarize from human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.01325/) (2020)
- [Can a Suit of Armor Conduct Electricity? A New Dataset for Open Book Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.02789/) (2018)
- [Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.04615/) (2022)
- [CommonsenseQA: A Question Answering Challenge Targeting Commonsense Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.00937/) (2018)
- [Inference-Time Intervention: Eliciting Truthful Answers from a Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03341/) (2023)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [C-Eval: A Multi-Level Multi-Discipline Chinese Evaluation Suite for Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.08322/) (2023)
- [Retrieval Augmentation Reduces Hallucination in Conversation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.07567/) (2021)
- [How Close is ChatGPT to Human Experts? Comparison Corpus, Evaluation, and Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.07597/) (2023)
- [Fine-tuning Language Models for Factuality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08401/) (2023)
- [Investigating the Factual Knowledge Boundary of Large Language Models with Retrieval Augmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.11019/) (2023)
- ["My Answer is C": First-Token Probabilities Do Not Match Text Answers in Instruction-Tuned Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14499/) (2024)
- [Xiezhi: An Ever-Updating Benchmark for Holistic Domain Knowledge Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05783/) (2023)
- [Think Twice Before Trusting: Self-Detection for Large Language Models through Comprehensive Answer Reflection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.09972/) (2024)
- [M3KE: A Massive Multi-Level Multi-Subject Knowledge Evaluation Benchmark for Chinese Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10263/) (2023)
- [Small Language Model Can Self-correct](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.07301/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Taming Overconfidence in LLMs: Reward Calibration in RLHF](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.09724/) (2024)
- [Efficient Test-Time Scaling via Self-Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.00031/) (2025)
- [Rewarding Doubt: A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Calibrated Confidence Expression of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.02623/) (2025)
- [Restoring Calibration for Aligned Large Language Models: A Calibration-Aware Fine-Tuning Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.01997/) (2025)
- [A Survey on the Honesty of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.18786/) (2024)
- [LoVeC: Reinforcement Learning for Better Verbalized Confidence in Long-Form Generations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23912/) (2025)
- [UAlign: Leveraging Uncertainty Estimations for Factuality Alignment on Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.11803/) (2024)
- [UNCLE: Benchmarking Uncertainty Expressions in Long-Form Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.16922/) (2025)
- [Teaching Language Models to Faithfully Express their Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.12587/) (2025)
- [Self-Evaluating LLMs for Multi-Step Tasks: Stepwise Confidence Estimation for Failure Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.07364/) (2025)
- [Improving the Calibration of Confidence Scores in Text Generation Using the Output Distribution's Characteristics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.00637/) (2025)
- [Towards Harmonized Uncertainty Estimation for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19073/) (2025)
- [Semantic Calibration Prevails Where Token Confidence Fails: Benchmarking Long-Form Scientific QA](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.00279/) (2026)
- [Just how sure are you? Improving Verbalized Uncertainty Calibration in Medical VQA](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.27023/) (2026)
- [Confidence-Based Response Abstinence: Improving LLM Trustworthiness via Activation-Based Uncertainty Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.13750/) (2025)
- [Label-Confidence-Aware Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.07255/) (2024)
- [Judging with Personality and Confidence: A Study on Personality-Conditioned LLM Relevance Assessment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.01862/) (2026)
- [MlingConf: A Comprehensive Study of Multilingual Confidence Estimation on Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.12478/) (2024)
- [Confident in a Confidence Score: Investigating the Sensitivity of Confidence Scores to Supervised Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.08974/) (2026)
- [ConSteer-RL: Steering Reasoning Capabilities in Large Language Models via Confidence-Aware Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.08088/) (2026)
- [Beyond Post-Hoc Temperature Scaling: Bilevel Optimization for LLM Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.07419/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable performance across various downstream tasks, but they may generate inaccurate or false information with a confident tone. One of the possible solutions is to empower the LLM confidence expression capability, in which the confidence expressed can be well-aligned with the true probability of the generated answer being correct. However, leveraging the intrinsic ability of LLMs or the signals from the output logits of answers proves challenging in accurately capturing the response uncertainty in LLMs. Therefore, drawing inspiration from cognitive diagnostics, we propose a method of Learning from Past experience (LePe) to enhance the capability for confidence expression. Specifically, we first identify three key problems: (1) How to capture the inherent confidence of the LLM? (2) How to teach the LLM to express confidence? (3) How to evaluate the confidence expression of the LLM? Then we devise three stages in LePe to deal with these problems. Besides, to accurately capture the confidence of an LLM when constructing the training data, we design a complete pipeline including question preparation and answer sampling. We also conduct experiments using the Llama family of LLMs to verify the effectiveness of our proposed method on four datasets.