# DiffObs: Generative Diffusion for Global Forecasting of Satellite Observations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.06517 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.06517/

## Key facts

- Cited by 9 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 15 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Apr 2024.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radar](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00954/) (2021)
- [GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.12794/) (2022)
- [Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.05433/) (2019)
- [GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.15796/) (2023)
- [FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Lead](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02948/) (2023)
- [Pangu-Weather: A 3D High-Resolution Model for Fast and Accurate Global Weather Forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.02556/) (2022)
- [Residual Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Km-scale Atmospheric Downscaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.15214/) (2023)
- [PreDiff: Precipitation Nowcasting with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.10422/) (2023)
- [Latent diffusion models for generative precipitation nowcasting with accurate uncertainty quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.12891/) (2023)
- [ACE: A fast, skillful learned global atmospheric model for climate prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02074/) (2023)
- [SEEDS: Emulation of Weather Forecast Ensembles with Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.14066/) (2023)
- [Forecasting Tropical Cyclones with Cascaded Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01690/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [Swift: An Autoregressive Consistency Model for Efficient Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25631/) (2025)
- [AERIS: Argonne Earth Systems Model for Reliable and Skillful Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.13523/) (2025)
- [Generative emulation of chaotic dynamics with coherent prior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.14264/) (2025)
- [SRViT: Vision Transformers for Estimating Radar Reflectivity from Satellite Observations at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16955/) (2024)
- [RAIN: Reinforcement Algorithms for Improving Numerical Weather and Climate Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.16118/) (2024)
- [Probabilistic Precipitation Nowcasting with Rectified Flow Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.31204/) (2026)
- [EO-WM: A Physically Informed World Model for Probabilistic Earth Observation Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.27277/) (2026)
- [Generating time-consistent dynamics with discriminator-guided image diffusion models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09089/) (2025)
- [Climate Prompting: Generating the Madden-Julian Oscillation using Video Diffusion and Low-Dimensional Conditioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.21856/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This work presents an autoregressive generative diffusion model (DiffObs) to predict the global evolution of daily precipitation, trained on a satellite observational product, and assessed with domain-specific diagnostics. The model is trained to probabilistically forecast day-ahead precipitation. Nonetheless, it is stable for multi-month rollouts, which reveal a qualitatively realistic superposition of convectively coupled wave modes in the tropics. Cross-spectral analysis confirms successful generation of low frequency variations associated with the Madden--Julian oscillation, which regulates most subseasonal to seasonal predictability in the observed atmosphere, and convectively coupled moist Kelvin waves with approximately correct dispersion relationships. Despite secondary issues and biases, the results affirm the potential for a next generation of global diffusion models trained on increasingly sparse, and increasingly direct and differentiated observations of the world, for practical applications in subseasonal and climate prediction.