# CountARFactuals -- Generating plausible model-agnostic counterfactual explanations with adversarial random forests

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.03506 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.03506/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 24 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Apr 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Variational Inference with Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05770/) (2015)
- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [Tabular Data: Deep Learning is Not All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.03253/) (2021)
- [Deep Neural Networks and Tabular Data: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.01889/) (2021)
- [Counterfactual Visual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.07451/) (2019)
- [Deep Generative Modelling: A Comparative Review of VAEs, GANs, Normalizing Flows, Energy-Based and Autoregressive Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.04922/) (2021)
- [Algorithmic Recourse: from Counterfactual Explanations to Interventions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06278/) (2020)
- [FACE: Feasible and Actionable Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.09369/) (2019)
- [Multi-Objective Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.11165/) (2020)
- [Learning Model-Agnostic Counterfactual Explanations for Tabular Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09398/) (2019)
- [Preserving Causal Constraints in Counterfactual Explanations for Machine Learning Classifiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.03277/) (2019)
- [Explaining Explanations in AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.01439/) (2018)
- [Towards Realistic Individual Recourse and Actionable Explanations in Black-Box Decision Making Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.09615/) (2019)
- [If Only We Had Better Counterfactual Explanations: Five Key Deficits to Rectify in the Evaluation of Counterfactual XAI Techniques](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.01035/) (2021)
- [Good Counterfactuals and Where to Find Them: A Case-Based Technique for Generating Counterfactuals for Explainable AI (XAI)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.13997/) (2020)
- [NICE: An Algorithm for Nearest Instance Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.07411/) (2021)
- [The Intriguing Relation Between Counterfactual Explanations and Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.05487/) (2020)
- [Adversarial random forests for density estimation and generative modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09435/) (2022)
- [Convex Density Constraints for Computing Plausible Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04862/) (2020)
- [Conditional Generative Models for Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.10123/) (2021)
- [Improvement-Focused Causal Recourse (ICR)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.15709/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Towards Unifying Evaluation of Counterfactual Explanations: Leveraging Large Language Models for Human-Centric Assessments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21131/) (2024)
- [S-CFE: Simple Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.15723/) (2024)
- [What's Wrong with Your Synthetic Tabular Data? Using Explainable AI to Evaluate Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.20687/) (2025)
- [DISCOVER: A Solver for Distributional Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.16436/) (2026)
- [Can synthetic data reproduce real-world findings in epidemiology? A replication study using adversarial random forests](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.14936/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Counterfactual explanations elucidate algorithmic decisions by pointing to scenarios that would have led to an alternative, desired outcome. Giving insight into the model's behavior, they hint users towards possible actions and give grounds for contesting decisions. As a crucial factor in achieving these goals, counterfactuals must be plausible, i.e., describing realistic alternative scenarios within the data manifold. This paper leverages a recently developed generative modeling technique -- adversarial random forests (ARFs) -- to efficiently generate plausible counterfactuals in a model-agnostic way. ARFs can serve as a plausibility measure or directly generate counterfactual explanations. Our ARF-based approach surpasses the limitations of existing methods that aim to generate plausible counterfactual explanations: It is easy to train and computationally highly efficient, handles continuous and categorical data naturally, and allows integrating additional desiderata such as sparsity in a straightforward manner.