# CoDy: Counterfactual Explainers for Dynamic Graphs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.16846 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.16846/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 28 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Mar 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 28 of 28)

- [GNNExplainer: Generating Explanations for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.03894/) (2019)
- [Temporal Graph Networks for Deep Learning on Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10637/) (2020)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.07962/) (2020)
- [Predicting Dynamic Embedding Trajectory in Temporal Interaction Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.01207/) (2019)
- [Parameterized Explainer for Graph Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.04573/) (2020)
- [T-GCN: A Temporal Graph ConvolutionalNetwork for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.05320/) (2018)
- [Explainability in Graph Neural Networks: A Taxonomic Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.15445/) (2020)
- [On Explainability of Graph Neural Networks via Subgraph Explorations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.05152/) (2021)
- [Representation Learning for Dynamic Graphs: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11485/) (2019)
- [XGNN: Towards Model-Level Explanations of Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.02587/) (2020)
- [PGM-Explainer: Probabilistic Graphical Model Explanations for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.05788/) (2020)
- [GraphLIME: Local Interpretable Model Explanations for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.06216/) (2020)
- [Interpretable and Generalizable Graph Learning via Stochastic Attention Mechanism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12987/) (2022)
- [Explainability Techniques for Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.13686/) (2019)
- [Towards Better Dynamic Graph Learning: New Architecture and Unified Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.13047/) (2023)
- [Higher-Order Explanations of Graph Neural Networks via Relevant Walks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.03589/) (2020)
- [Temporal Graph Benchmark for Machine Learning on Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01026/) (2023)
- [CF-GNNExplainer: Counterfactual Explanations for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.03322/) (2021)
- [Learning and Evaluating Graph Neural Network Explanations based on Counterfactual and Factual Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.08816/) (2022)
- [Graph Neural Networks for temporal graphs: State of the art, open challenges, and opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01018/) (2023)
- [GraphFramEx: Towards Systematic Evaluation of Explainability Methods for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.09677/) (2022)
- [Provably expressive temporal graph networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15059/) (2022)
- [A Survey on Graph Counterfactual Explanations: Definitions, Methods, Evaluation, and Research Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.12089/) (2022)
- [DAG Matters! GFlowNets Enhanced Explainer For Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.02448/) (2023)
- [TempME: Towards the Explainability of Temporal Graph Neural Networks via Motif Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.19324/) (2023)
- [GCN-SE: Attention as Explainability for Node Classification in Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.05598/) (2021)
- [An Explainer for Temporal Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.00807/) (2022)
- [A Differential Geometric View and Explainability of GNN on Evolving Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.06425/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Boosting Team Modeling through Tempo-Relational Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.13305/) (2025)
- [CoDCL: Counterfactual-Inspired Augmentation Contrastive Learning for Temporal Link Prediction in Social Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.22427/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) are widely used to model dynamic systems where relationships and features evolve over time. Although TGNNs demonstrate strong predictive capabilities in these domains, their complex architectures pose significant challenges for explainability. Counterfactual explanation methods provide a promising solution by illustrating how modifications to input graphs can influence model predictions. To address this challenge, we present CoDy, Counterfactual Explainer for Dynamic Graphs, a model-agnostic, instance-level explanation approach that identifies counterfactual subgraphs to interpret TGNN predictions. CoDy employs a search algorithm that combines Monte Carlo Tree Search with heuristic selection policies, efficiently exploring a vast search space of potential explanatory subgraphs by leveraging spatial, temporal, and local event impact information. Extensive experiments against state-of-the-art factual and counterfactual baselines demonstrate CoDy's effectiveness, with improvements of 16% in AUFSC+ over the strongest baseline.