# Calibrating Bayesian UNet++ for Sub-Seasonal Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.16612 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.16612/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 13 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Mar 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.00263/) (2018)
- [Being Bayesian, Even Just a Bit, Fixes Overconfidence in ReLU Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.10118/) (2020)
- [Bayesian Neural Networks: An Introduction and Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.12024/) (2020)
- [A Bayesian Deep Learning Approach to Near-Term Climate Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11244/) (2022)
- [Climate Model Driven Seasonal Forecasting Approach with Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.10480/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Seasonal forecasting is a crucial task when it comes to detecting the extreme heat and colds that occur due to climate change. Confidence in the predictions should be reliable since a small increase in the temperatures in a year has a big impact on the world. Calibration of the neural networks provides a way to ensure our confidence in the predictions. However, calibrating regression models is an under-researched topic, especially in forecasters. We calibrate a UNet++ based architecture, which was shown to outperform physics-based models in temperature anomalies. We show that with a slight trade-off between prediction error and calibration error, it is possible to get more reliable and sharper forecasts. We believe that calibration should be an important part of safety-critical machine learning applications such as weather forecasters.