# Producing and Leveraging Online Map Uncertainty in Trajectory Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.16439 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.16439/

## Key facts

- Cited by 33 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 37 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Mar 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11027/) (2019)
- [BEVFormer: Learning Bird's-Eye-View Representation from Multi-Camera Images via Spatiotemporal Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.17270/) (2022)
- [Planning-oriented Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10156/) (2022)
- [Lift, Splat, Shoot: Encoding Images From Arbitrary Camera Rigs by Implicitly Unprojecting to 3D](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.05711/) (2020)
- [BEVFusion: Multi-Task Multi-Sensor Fusion with Unified Bird's-Eye View Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13542/) (2022)
- [Argoverse: 3D Tracking and Forecasting with Rich Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02620/) (2019)
- [Argoverse 2: Next Generation Datasets for Self-Driving Perception and Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.00493/) (2023)
- [VAD: Vectorized Scene Representation for Efficient Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12077/) (2023)
- [Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10133/) (2021)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [Learning Lane Graph Representations for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.13732/) (2020)
- [TNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.08294/) (2020)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [MapTR: Structured Modeling and Learning for Online Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.14437/) (2022)
- [DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09640/) (2021)
- [HDMapNet: An Online HD Map Construction and Evaluation Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.06307/) (2021)
- [CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.10298/) (2019)
- [VectorMapNet: End-to-end Vectorized HD Map Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.08920/) (2022)
- [Parting with Misconceptions about Learning-based Vehicle Motion Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.07962/) (2023)
- [Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.06113/) (2019)
- [Scene as Occupancy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.02851/) (2023)
- [Multimodal Motion Prediction with Stacked Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.11624/) (2021)
- [MapTRv2: An End-to-End Framework for Online Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.05736/) (2023)
- [GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01827/) (2021)
- [StreamMapNet: Streaming Mapping Network for Vectorized Online HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.12570/) (2023)
- [HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.10968/) (2021)
- [Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Conditioned on Lane-Graph Traversals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.15004/) (2021)
- [THOMAS: Trajectory Heatmap Output with learned Multi-Agent Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.06607/) (2021)
- [Structured Bird's-Eye-View Traffic Scene Understanding from Onboard Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.01997/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 33)

- [DiffusionDrive: Truncated Diffusion Model for End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.15139/) (2024)
- [RAD: Training an End-to-End Driving Policy via Large-Scale 3DGS-based Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.13144/) (2025)
- [Toward Real-world BEV Perception: Depth Uncertainty Estimation via Gaussian Splatting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.01957/) (2025)
- [Data Scaling Laws for End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.04338/) (2025)
- [Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving: Progress, Limitations, and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.03262/) (2025)
- [UncAD: Towards Safe End-to-end Autonomous Driving via Online Map Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.12826/) (2025)
- [MapDiffusion: Generative Diffusion for Vectorized Online HD Map Construction and Uncertainty Estimation in Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.21423/) (2025)
- [Unveiling the Hidden: Online Vectorized HD Map Construction with Clip-Level Token Interaction and Propagation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.11002/) (2024)
- [DTCLMapper: Dual Temporal Consistent Learning for Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.05518/) (2024)
- [Multi-modal Knowledge Distillation-based Human Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.22201/) (2025)
- [MemFusionMap: Working Memory Fusion for Online Vectorized HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.18737/) (2024)
- [Accelerating Online Mapping and Behavior Prediction via Direct BEV Feature Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.06683/) (2024)
- [Stability Under Scrutiny: Benchmarking Representation Paradigms for Online HD Mapping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10660/) (2025)
- [Delving into Mapping Uncertainty for Mapless Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.18498/) (2025)
- [Generative Active Learning for Long-tail Trajectory Prediction via Controllable Diffusion Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.22615/) (2025)
- [CUQDS: Conformal Uncertainty Quantification under Distribution Shift for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.12100/) (2024)
- [RTMap: Real-Time Recursive Mapping with Change Detection and Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.00980/) (2025)
- [AID4AD: Aerial Image Data for Automated Driving Perception](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.02140/) (2025)
- [WPT: World-to-Policy Transfer via Online World Model Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.20095/) (2025)
- [Uncertainty-Instructed Structure Injection for Generalizable HD Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.23109/) (2025)
- [Mimir: Hierarchical Goal-Driven Diffusion with Uncertainty Propagation for End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.07130/) (2025)
- [Using Language and Road Manuals to Inform Map Reconstruction for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.10317/) (2025)
- [DiffSemanticFusion: Semantic Raster BEV Fusion for Autonomous Driving via Online HD Map Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.01778/) (2025)
- [UniUncer: Unified Dynamic Static Uncertainty for End to End Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.07686/) (2026)
- [SUPER-AD: Semantic Uncertainty-aware Planning for End-to-End Robust Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.22865/) (2025)
- [Unified Map Prior Encoder for Mapping and Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.02762/) (2026)
- [LASER: Script Execution by Autonomous Agents for On-demand Traffic Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.16197/) (2024)
- [GContextFormer: A global context-aware hybrid multi-head attention approach with scaled additive aggregation for multimodal trajectory prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.18874/) (2025)
- [Uncertainty-Aware Trajectory Prediction: A Unified Framework Harnessing Positional and Semantic Uncertainties](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.29362/) (2026)
- [Dynamics Distillation for Efficient and Transferable Control Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.01516/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

High-definition (HD) maps have played an integral role in the development of modern autonomous vehicle (AV) stacks, albeit with high associated labeling and maintenance costs. As a result, many recent works have proposed methods for estimating HD maps online from sensor data, enabling AVs to operate outside of previously-mapped regions. However, current online map estimation approaches are developed in isolation of their downstream tasks, complicating their integration in AV stacks. In particular, they do not produce uncertainty or confidence estimates. In this work, we extend multiple state-of-the-art online map estimation methods to additionally estimate uncertainty and show how this enables more tightly integrating online mapping with trajectory forecasting. In doing so, we find that incorporating uncertainty yields up to 50% faster training convergence and up to 15% better prediction performance on the real-world nuScenes driving dataset.