# An ensemble of data-driven weather prediction models for operational sub-seasonal forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.15598 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.15598/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 18 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Mar 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [A ConvNet for the 2020s](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03545/) (2022)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12873/) (2023)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [Spherical Fourier Neural Operators: Learning Stable Dynamics on the Sphere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03838/) (2023)
- [GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.15796/) (2023)
- [FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Lead](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02948/) (2023)
- [Forecasting Global Weather with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07575/) (2022)
- [Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03876/) (2023)
- [Sub-seasonal forecasting with a large ensemble of deep-learning weather prediction models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.05107/) (2021)
- [MS-nowcasting: Operational Precipitation Nowcasting with Convolutional LSTMs at Microsoft Weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.09954/) (2021)
- [Kunyu: A High-Performing Global Weather Model Beyond Regression Losses](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.08264/) (2023)
- [FuXi-S2S: A machine learning model that outperforms conventional global subseasonal forecast models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.09926/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Long-Range Distillation: Distilling 10,000 Years of Simulated Climate into Long Timestep AI Weather Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.22814/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global weather at 1-degree resolution for 4 weeks of lead time. For predictions of 2-meter temperature, our ensemble on average outperforms the raw ECMWF extended-range ensemble by 4-17%, depending on the lead time. However, after applying statistical bias corrections, the ECMWF ensemble is about 3% better at 4 weeks. For other surface parameters, our ensemble is also within a few percentage points of ECMWF's ensemble. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve near-state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts using a multi-model ensembling approach with data-driven weather prediction models.