# Scenarios for the Transition to AGI

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.12107 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.12107/

## Key facts

- Cited by 13 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Mar 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Do As I Can, Not As I Say: Grounding Language in Robotic Affordances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.01691/) (2022)
- [GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.10130/) (2023)
- [Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05924/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Infrastructure for AI Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.10114/) (2025)
- [Remote Labor Index: Measuring AI Automation of Remote Work](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.26787/) (2025)
- [An Economy of AI Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.01063/) (2025)
- [Measuring AI R&D Automation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.03992/) (2026)
- [The Economics of p(doom): Scenarios of Existential Risk and Economic Growth in the Age of Transformative AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.07341/) (2025)
- [Post-AGI Economies: Autonomy and the First Fundamental Theorem of Welfare Economics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.21216/) (2026)
- [From Turing to Tomorrow: The UK's Approach to AI Regulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.03050/) (2025)
- [Making AI Inevitable: Historical Perspective and the Problems of Predicting Long-Term Technological Change](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.16692/) (2025)
- [Post-AGI Economies: Superposition and the Second Fundamental Theorem of Welfare Economics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.08267/) (2026)
- [Optimising for Flourishing: Flourishing Metrics and Return on Flourishing as Success Criteria for Artificial Intelligence and Post-AGI Economic Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.00151/) (2026)
- [International Agreements to Limit Frontier AI: Objectives and Exit](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.16224/) (2026)
- [A New Theory of Value for Post-AGI Economics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.01432/) (2026)
- [Growth Without Us: Machine Consumers, Corporate Circularity, and the Decoupling of GDP from Humanity after AGI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.20231/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We assume that human work can be decomposed into atomistic tasks that differ in their complexity. Advances in technology make ever more complex tasks amenable to automation. The effects on wages depend on a race between automation and capital accumulation. If the distribution of task complexity exhibits a sufficiently thick infinite tail, then there is always enough work for humans, and wages may rise forever. By contrast, if the complexity of tasks that humans can perform is bounded and full automation is reached, then wages collapse. But declines may occur even before if large-scale automation outpaces capital accumulation and makes labor too abundant. Automating productivity growth may lead to broad-based gains in the returns to all factors. By contrast, bottlenecks to growth from irreproducible scarce factors may exacerbate the decline in wages.