# Diffusion-Based Environment-Aware Trajectory Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.11643 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.11643/

## Key facts

- Cited by 14 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 61 of its 88 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Mar 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 61)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10752/) (2021)
- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Hierarchical Text-Conditional Image Generation with CLIP Latents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.06125/) (2022)
- [Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.12598/) (2022)
- [SGDR: Stochastic Gradient Descent with Warm Restarts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.03983/) (2016)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Gaussian Error Linear Units (GELUs)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.08415/) (2016)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [Fast Graph Representation Learning with PyTorch Geometric](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.02428/) (2019)
- [On the Properties of Neural Machine Translation: Encoder-Decoder Approaches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1259/) (2014)
- [Diffusion Models: A Comprehensive Survey of Methods and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.00796/) (2022)
- [Human Motion Diffusion Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14916/) (2022)
- [How Attentive are Graph Attention Networks?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.14491/) (2021)
- [MotionDiffuse: Text-Driven Human Motion Generation with Diffusion Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.15001/) (2022)
- [Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10892/) (2018)
- [DropEdge: Towards Deep Graph Convolutional Networks on Node Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10903/) (2019)
- [Equivariant Diffusion for Molecule Generation in 3D](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.17003/) (2022)
- [Action-Conditioned 3D Human Motion Synthesis with Transformer VAE](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.05670/) (2021)
- [Learning Lane Graph Representations for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.13732/) (2020)
- [Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12072/) (2021)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [SoPhie: An Attentive GAN for Predicting Paths Compliant to Social and Physical Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01482/) (2018)
- [Multimodal Trajectory Predictions for Autonomous Driving using Deep Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.10732/) (2018)
- [The highD Dataset: A Drone Dataset of Naturalistic Vehicle Trajectories on German Highways for Validation of Highly Automated Driving Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.05642/) (2018)

## Built on by (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [A Survey on Diffusion Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.18886/) (2024)
- [Generalized Trajectory Scoring for End-to-end Multimodal Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06664/) (2025)
- [Hydra-NeXt: Robust Closed-Loop Driving with Open-Loop Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.12030/) (2025)
- [ParkDiffusion: Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Multi-Modal Trajectory Prediction for Automated Parking using Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.00586/) (2025)
- [FollowGen: A Scaled Noise Conditional Diffusion Model for Car-Following Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.16747/) (2024)
- [Toward Unified Practices in Trajectory Prediction Research on Bird's-Eye-View Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00604/) (2024)
- [Crossfusor: A Cross-Attention Transformer Enhanced Conditional Diffusion Model for Car-Following Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11941/) (2024)
- [STRAP: Spatial-Temporal Risk-Attentive Vehicle Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.08563/) (2025)
- [RoboGolf: Mastering Real-World Minigolf with a Reflective Multi-Modality Vision-Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.10157/) (2024)
- [Robust Planning for Autonomous Driving via Mixed Adversarial Diffusion Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.12327/) (2025)
- [Pattern-Guided Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.13945/) (2025)
- [Chatting about Conditional Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.18126/) (2026)
- [From Cues to Horizons: Dynamic Risk Horizon Profiling for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00857/) (2026)
- [Unveiling Transferability in Trajectory Prediction via Latent Scene Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.30777/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The ability to predict the future trajectories of traffic participants is crucial for the safe and efficient operation of autonomous vehicles. In this paper, a diffusion-based generative model for multi-agent trajectory prediction is proposed. The model is capable of capturing the complex interactions between traffic participants and the environment, accurately learning the multimodal nature of the data. The effectiveness of the approach is assessed on large-scale datasets of real-world traffic scenarios, showing that our model outperforms several well-established methods in terms of prediction accuracy. By the incorporation of differential motion constraints on the model output, we illustrate that our model is capable of generating a diverse set of realistic future trajectories. Through the use of an interaction-aware guidance signal, we further demonstrate that the model can be adapted to predict the behavior of less cooperative agents, emphasizing its practical applicability under uncertain traffic conditions.