# Intention-aware Denoising Diffusion Model for Trajectory Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.09190 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.09190/

## Key facts

- Cited by 11 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Diffusion and flow policies for robotics, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 59 of its 102 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Mar 2024.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Diffusion and flow policies for robotics](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/diffusion-and-flow-policies-for-robotics/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 59)

- [High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10752/) (2021)
- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.00667/) (2022)
- [Improved Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09672/) (2021)
- [Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.3215/) (2014)
- [Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03458/) (2022)
- [SDEdit: Guided Image Synthesis and Editing with Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.01073/) (2021)
- [Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.03476/) (2016)
- [DiffWave: A Versatile Diffusion Model for Audio Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.09761/) (2020)
- [Diffusion Models: A Comprehensive Survey of Methods and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.00796/) (2022)
- [Diffusion-LM Improves Controllable Text Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14217/) (2022)
- [Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10892/) (2018)
- [ILVR: Conditioning Method for Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.02938/) (2021)
- [WaveGrad: Estimating Gradients for Waveform Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.00713/) (2020)
- [CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03502/) (2021)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05449/) (2019)
- [TNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.08294/) (2020)
- [Understanding Diffusion Models: A Unified Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.11970/) (2022)
- [Social-STGCNN: A Social Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Network for Human Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.11927/) (2020)
- [DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09640/) (2021)
- [Flexible Diffusion Modeling of Long Videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11495/) (2022)
- [CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.10298/) (2019)
- [It Is Not the Journey but the Destination: Endpoint Conditioned Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.02025/) (2020)
- [Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.06113/) (2019)
- [Social-BiGAT: Multimodal Trajectory Forecasting using Bicycle-GAN and Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.03395/) (2019)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Transformer Networks for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.08514/) (2020)
- [Stochastic Trajectory Prediction via Motion Indeterminacy Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.13777/) (2022)
- [From Goals, Waypoints & Paths To Long Term Human Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.01526/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [A Survey on Diffusion Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.18886/) (2024)
- [ParkDiffusion: Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Multi-Modal Trajectory Prediction for Automated Parking using Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.00586/) (2025)
- [Dynamic High-Order Control Barrier Functions with Diffuser for Safety-Critical Trajectory Planning at Signal-Free Intersections](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.00162/) (2024)
- [MAVEN-T: Reinforced Heterogeneous Distillation for Real-Time Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.10169/) (2026)
- [ADM: Accelerated Diffusion Model via Estimated Priors for Robust Motion Prediction under Uncertainties](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00797/) (2024)
- [Recent Advances in Multi-Agent Human Trajectory Prediction: A Comprehensive Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.14831/) (2025)
- [Agentic Satellite-Augmented Low-Altitude Economy and Terrestrial Networks: A Survey on Generative Approaches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.14633/) (2025)
- [DiffMOD: Progressive Diffusion Point Denoising for Moving Object Detection in Remote Sensing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.10278/) (2025)
- [Proposal-Conditioned Latent Diffusion for Closed-Loop Traffic Scenario Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.27123/) (2026)
- [Schr"odinger's Cat: Probabilistic Representation and Prediction of Potential Scene Kinematics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.25984/) (2026)
- [Not All History Helps: Velocity-Aware Selective Memory for Long-Horizon End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.15573/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Trajectory prediction is an essential component in autonomous driving, particularly for collision avoidance systems. Considering the inherent uncertainty of the task, numerous studies have utilized generative models to produce multiple plausible future trajectories for each agent. However, most of them suffer from restricted representation ability or unstable training issues. To overcome these limitations, we propose utilizing the diffusion model to generate the distribution of future trajectories. Two cruxes are to be settled to realize such an idea. First, the diversity of intention is intertwined with the uncertain surroundings, making the true distribution hard to parameterize. Second, the diffusion process is time-consuming during the inference phase, rendering it unrealistic to implement in a real-time driving system. We propose an Intention-aware denoising Diffusion Model (IDM), which tackles the above two problems. We decouple the original uncertainty into intention uncertainty and action uncertainty and model them with two dependent diffusion processes. To decrease the inference time, we reduce the variable dimensions in the intention-aware diffusion process and restrict the initial distribution of the action-aware diffusion process, which leads to fewer diffusion steps. To validate our approach, we conduct experiments on the Stanford Drone Dataset (SDD) and ETH/UCY dataset. Our methods achieve state-of-the-art results, with an FDE of 13.83 pixels on the SDD dataset and 0.36 meters on the ETH/UCY dataset. Compared with the original diffusion model, IDM reduces inference time by two-thirds. Interestingly, our experiments further reveal that introducing intention information is beneficial in modeling the diffusion process of fewer steps.