# Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.07815 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/

## Key facts

- Cited by 759 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 50 of its 91 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Mar 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 50)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10683/) (2019)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [BART: Denoising Sequence-to-Sequence Pre-training for Natural Language Generation, Translation, and Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.13461/) (2019)
- [PaLM: Scaling Language Modeling with Pathways](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.02311/) (2022)
- [mixup: Beyond Empirical Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.09412/) (2017)
- [Pointer Sentinel Mixture Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.07843/) (2016)
- [Scaling Instruction-Finetuned Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.11416/) (2022)
- [Neural Machine Translation of Rare Words with Subword Units](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1508.07909/) (2015)
- [The Curious Case of Neural Text Degeneration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.09751/) (2019)
- [FlashAttention-2: Faster Attention with Better Parallelism and Work Partitioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.08691/) (2023)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [The Pile: An 800GB Dataset of Diverse Text for Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.00027/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [WaveNet: A Generative Model for Raw Audio](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.03499/) (2016)
- [Fast Inference from Transformers via Speculative Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.17192/) (2022)
- [Hierarchical Neural Story Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.04833/) (2018)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [LLM.int8(): 8-bit Matrix Multiplication for Transformers at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.07339/) (2022)
- [N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10437/) (2019)
- [Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01728/) (2023)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Conformalized Quantile Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.03222/) (2019)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07820/) (2023)
- [MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03885/) (2024)
- [AdaLoRA: Adaptive Budget Allocation for Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.10512/) (2023)
- [Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12072/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 759)

- [TabICL: A Tabular Foundation Model for In-Context Learning on Large Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.05564/) (2025)
- [Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.16040/) (2024)
- [Foundation Models for Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14735/) (2024)
- [GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10393/) (2024)
- [Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13278/) (2024)
- [Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.15821/) (2025)
- [Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.00816/) (2025)
- [Are Language Models Actually Useful for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16964/) (2024)
- [TiRex: Zero-Shot Forecasting Across Long and Short Horizons with Enhanced In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23719/) (2025)
- [Moirai-MoE: Empowering Time Series Foundation Models with Sparse Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10469/) (2024)
- [VisionTS: Visual Masked Autoencoders Are Free-Lunch Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.17253/) (2024)
- [Timer-XL: Long-Context Transformers for Unified Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.04803/) (2024)
- [Time-MQA: Time Series Multi-Task Question Answering with Context Enhancement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01875/) (2025)
- [Time-MMD: Multi-Domain Multimodal Dataset for Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.08627/) (2024)
- [Test-time regression: a unifying framework for designing sequence models with associative memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12352/) (2025)
- [PaPaGei: Open Foundation Models for Optical Physiological Signals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.20542/) (2024)
- [Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.11698/) (2025)
- [fev-bench: A Realistic Benchmark for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.26468/) (2025)
- [Scaling Wearable Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13638/) (2024)
- [From Tables to Time: Extending TabPFN-v2 to Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.02945/) (2025)
- [TAB: Unified Benchmarking of Time Series Anomaly Detection Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.18046/) (2025)
- [MTBench: A Multimodal Time Series Benchmark for Temporal Reasoning and Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16858/) (2025)
- [TimeSeriesExam: A time series understanding exam](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.14752/) (2024)
- [Retrieval Augmented Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.08249/) (2024)
- [TS-RAG: Retrieval-Augmented Generation based Time Series Foundation Models are Stronger Zero-Shot Forecaster](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.07649/) (2025)
- [TimeXL: Explainable Multi-modal Time Series Prediction with LLM-in-the-Loop](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01013/) (2025)
- [SensorLLM: Aligning Large Language Models with Motion Sensors for Human Activity Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10624/) (2024)
- [Gradient-Free Generation for Hard-Constrained Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.01786/) (2024)
- [Pulse-PPG: An Open-Source Field-Trained PPG Foundation Model for Wearable Applications Across Lab and Field Settings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.01108/) (2025)
- [TimeCAP: Learning to Contextualize, Augment, and Predict Time Series Events with Large Language Model Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.11418/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based language model architectures on these tokenized time series via the cross-entropy loss. We pretrained Chronos models based on the T5 family (ranging from 20M to 710M parameters) on a large collection of publicly available datasets, complemented by a synthetic dataset that we generated via Gaussian processes to improve generalization. In a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 42 datasets, and comprising both classical local models and deep learning methods, we show that Chronos models: (a) significantly outperform other methods on datasets that were part of the training corpus; and (b) have comparable and occasionally superior zero-shot performance on new datasets, relative to methods that were trained specifically on them. Our results demonstrate that Chronos models can leverage time series data from diverse domains to improve zero-shot accuracy on unseen forecasting tasks, positioning pretrained models as a viable tool to greatly simplify forecasting pipelines.