# Beyond Probabilities: Unveiling the Misalignment in Evaluating Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.13887 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.13887/

## Key facts

- Cited by 19 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 41 of its 55 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 Feb 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 41)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [PaLM: Scaling Language Modeling with Pathways](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.02311/) (2022)
- [SQuAD: 100,000+ Questions for Machine Comprehension of Text](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.05250/) (2016)
- [Finetuned Language Models Are Zero-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01652/) (2021)
- [Training a Helpful and Harmless Assistant with Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.05862/) (2022)
- [Scaling Instruction-Finetuned Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.11416/) (2022)
- [TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.07958/) (2021)
- [Self-Instruct: Aligning Language Models with Self-Generated Instructions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10560/) (2022)
- [A Survey of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.18223/) (2023)
- [G-Eval: NLG Evaluation using GPT-4 with Better Human Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16634/) (2023)
- [Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.04615/) (2022)
- [BLOOM: A 176B-Parameter Open-Access Multilingual Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.05100/) (2022)
- [SuperGLUE: A Stickier Benchmark for General-Purpose Language Understanding Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.00537/) (2019)
- [LIMA: Less Is More for Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.11206/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models are not Fair Evaluators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17926/) (2023)
- [A General Language Assistant as a Laboratory for Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.00861/) (2021)
- [Super-NaturalInstructions: Generalization via Declarative Instructions on 1600+ NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.07705/) (2022)
- [The Flan Collection: Designing Data and Methods for Effective Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13688/) (2023)
- [C-Eval: A Multi-Level Multi-Discipline Chinese Evaluation Suite for Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.08322/) (2023)
- [Cross-Task Generalization via Natural Language Crowdsourcing Instructions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08773/) (2021)
- [CMMLU: Measuring massive multitask language understanding in Chinese](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09212/) (2023)
- [The Belebele Benchmark: a Parallel Reading Comprehension Dataset in 122 Language Variants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.16884/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models Sensitivity to The Order of Options in Multiple-Choice Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11483/) (2023)
- [When Benchmarks are Targets: Revealing the Sensitivity of Large Language Model Leaderboards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01781/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Lessons from the Trenches on Reproducible Evaluation of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14782/) (2024)
- [CVQA: Culturally-diverse Multilingual Visual Question Answering Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.05967/) (2024)
- [Auxiliary task demands mask the capabilities of smaller language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.02418/) (2024)
- [Values in the Wild: Discovering and Analyzing Values in Real-World Language Model Interactions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.15236/) (2025)
- [(Perhaps) Beyond Human Translation: Harnessing Multi-Agent Collaboration for Translating Ultra-Long Literary Texts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.11804/) (2024)
- [Do Vision & Language Decoders use Images and Text equally? How Self-consistent are their Explanations?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.18624/) (2024)
- [AI Alignment at Your Discretion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.10441/) (2025)
- [Should We Really Edit Language Models? On the Evaluation of Edited Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.18785/) (2024)
- [Look at the Text: Instruction-Tuned Language Models are More Robust Multiple Choice Selectors than You Think](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.08382/) (2024)
- [Value Drifts: Tracing Value Alignment During LLM Post-Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.26707/) (2025)
- [CoBRA: Programming Cognitive Bias in Social Agents Using Classic Social Science Experiments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.13588/) (2025)
- [Too Big to Fool: Resisting Deception in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.10558/) (2024)
- [Choices Speak Louder than Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18798/) (2025)
- [Do Language Models Think Consistently? A Study of Value Preferences Across Varying Response Lengths](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.02481/) (2025)
- [You May Speak Freely: Improving the Fine-Grained Visual Recognition Capabilities of Multimodal Large Language Models with Answer Extraction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.14885/) (2025)
- [Beyond Multiple Choice: Verifiable OpenQA for Robust Vision-Language RFT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.17405/) (2025)
- [Isotropy Cliffs: The Geometric Signature of Decision-Making in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.00828/) (2026)
- [CoWindow Attention: Full Causal Coverage Is a Collective Property](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.32704/) (2026)
- [MassAlloc Attention: Let Attention Allocate Its Own Compute](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.32712/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various applications, fundamentally reshaping the landscape of natural language processing (NLP) research. However, recent evaluation frameworks often rely on the output probabilities of LLMs for predictions, primarily due to computational constraints, diverging from real-world LLM usage scenarios. While widely employed, the efficacy of these probability-based evaluation strategies remains an open research question. This study aims to scrutinize the validity of such probability-based evaluation methods within the context of using LLMs for Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs), highlighting their inherent limitations. Our empirical investigation reveals that the prevalent probability-based evaluation method inadequately aligns with generation-based prediction. Furthermore, current evaluation frameworks typically assess LLMs through predictive tasks based on output probabilities rather than directly generating responses, owing to computational limitations. We illustrate that these probability-based approaches do not effectively correspond with generative predictions. The outcomes of our study can enhance the understanding of LLM evaluation methodologies and provide insights for future research in this domain.