# DiffPLF: A Conditional Diffusion Model for Probabilistic Forecasting of EV Charging Load

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.13548 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.13548/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 10 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 Feb 2024.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10752/) (2021)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.12598/) (2022)
- [Improved Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09672/) (2021)
- [CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03502/) (2021)
- [Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12072/) (2021)
- [Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting via Conditioned Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06103/) (2020)
- [Probabilistic Charging Power Forecast of EVCS: Reinforcement Learning Assisted Deep Learning Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.07905/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [A Survey on Diffusion Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.18886/) (2024)
- [Conditional Denoising Meets Polynomial Modeling: A Flexible Decoupled Framework for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13253/) (2024)
- [A Behavior-Guided Online Probabilistic Forecasting Method for Electric vehicle Charging Loads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.24441/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Due to the vast electric vehicle (EV) penetration to distribution grid, charging load forecasting is essential to promote charging station operation and demand-side management.However, the stochastic charging behaviors and associated exogenous factors render future charging load patterns quite volatile and hard to predict. Accordingly, we devise a novel Diffusion model termed DiffPLF for Probabilistic Load Forecasting of EV charging, which can explicitly approximate the predictive load distribution conditioned on historical data and related covariates. Specifically, we leverage a denoising diffusion model, which can progressively convert the Gaussian prior to real time-series data by learning a reversal of the diffusion process. Besides, we couple such diffusion model with a cross-attention-based conditioning mechanism to execute conditional generation for possible charging demand profiles. We also propose a task-informed fine-tuning technique to better adapt DiffPLF to the probabilistic time-series forecasting task and acquire more accurate and reliable predicted intervals. Finally, we conduct multiple experiments to validate the superiority of DiffPLF to predict complex temporal patterns of erratic charging load and carry out controllable generation based on certain covariate. Results demonstrate that we can attain a notable rise of 39.58% and 49.87% on MAE and CRPS respectively compared to the conventional method.