# Impact of data for forecasting on performance of model predictive control in buildings with smart energy storage

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.12539 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12539/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 64 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Feb 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [N-HiTS: Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12886/) (2022)
- [CityLearn: Standardizing Research in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Demand Response and Urban Energy Management](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.10504/) (2020)
- [Physics-informed linear regression is competitive with two Machine Learning methods in residential building MPC](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.15911/) (2021)
- [Data-driven Predictive Control for Unlocking Building Energy Flexibility: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.14866/) (2020)
- [CityTFT: Temporal Fusion Transformer for Urban Building Energy Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.02375/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [CityLearn v2: Energy-flexible, resilient, occupant-centric, and carbon-aware management of grid-interactive communities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.03848/) (2024)
- [Adapting to Change: A Comparison of Continual and Transfer Learning for Modeling Building Thermal Dynamics under Concept Drifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.21615/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Data is required to develop forecasting models for use in Model Predictive Control (MPC) schemes in building energy systems. However, data is costly to both collect and exploit. Determining cost optimal data usage strategies requires understanding of the forecast accuracy and resulting MPC operational performance it enables. This study investigates the performance of both simple and state-of-the-art machine learning prediction models for MPC in multi-building energy systems using a simulated case study with historic building energy data. The impact on forecast accuracy of measures to improve model data efficiency are quantified, specifically for: reuse of prediction models, reduction of training data duration, reduction of model data features, and online model training. A simple linear multi-layer perceptron model is shown to provide equivalent forecast accuracy to state-of-the-art models, with greater data efficiency and generalisability. The use of more than 2 years of training data for load prediction models provided no significant improvement in forecast accuracy. Forecast accuracy and data efficiency were improved simultaneously by using change-point analysis to screen training data. Reused models and those trained with 3 months of data had on average 10% higher error than baseline, indicating that deploying MPC systems without prior data collection may be economic.