# Estimating the age-conditioned average treatment effects curves: An application for assessing load-management strategies in the NBA

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.12400 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12400/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 16 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Feb 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Tabular Data: Deep Learning is Not All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.03253/) (2021)
- [Deep Neural Networks and Tabular Data: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.01889/) (2021)
- [Meta-learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03461/) (2017)
- [Recursive Partitioning for Heterogeneous Causal Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1504.01132/) (2015)
- [Why do tree-based models still outperform deep learning on tabular data?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.08815/) (2022)
- [Linear Aggregation in Tree-based Estimators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.06463/) (2019)
- [What does not get observed can be used to make age curves stronger: estimating player age curves using regression and imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14017/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In the realm of competitive sports, understanding the performance dynamics of athletes, represented by the age curve (showing progression, peak, and decline), is vital. Our research introduces a novel framework for quantifying age-specific treatment effects, enhancing the granularity of performance trajectory analysis. Firstly, we propose a methodology for estimating the age curve using game-level data, diverging from traditional season-level data approaches, and tackling its inherent complexities with a meta-learner framework that leverages advanced machine learning models. This approach uncovers intricate non-linear patterns missed by existing methods. Secondly, our framework enables the identification of causal effects, allowing for a detailed examination of age curves under various conditions. By defining the Age-Conditioned Treatment Effect (ACTE), we facilitate the exploration of causal relationships regarding treatment impacts at specific ages. Finally, applying this methodology to study the effects of rest days on performance metrics, particularly across different ages, offers valuable insights into load management strategies' effectiveness. Our findings underscore the importance of tailored rest periods, highlighting their positive impact on athlete performance and suggesting a reevaluation of current management practices for optimizing athlete performance.