# AMEND: A Mixture of Experts Framework for Long-tailed Trajectory Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.08698 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.08698/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in MoE for time series and graphs, one of 12 directions in Mixture-of-experts.
- Builds on 26 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Feb 2024.

## Placed in

- Mixture-of-experts / [MoE for time series and graphs](https://mlsanity.com/moe/moe-for-time-series-and-graphs/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 26 of 26)

- [Outrageously Large Neural Networks: The Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.06538/) (2017)
- [HyperNetworks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.09106/) (2016)
- [Mixture-of-Experts with Expert Choice Routing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.09368/) (2022)
- [Long-tail learning via logit adjustment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.07314/) (2020)
- [Deep Long-Tailed Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.04596/) (2021)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [Motion Transformer with Global Intention Localization and Local Movement Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.13508/) (2022)
- [Stochastic Trajectory Prediction via Motion Indeterminacy Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.13777/) (2022)
- [From Goals, Waypoints & Paths To Long Term Human Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.01526/) (2020)
- [Generating Useful Accident-Prone Driving Scenarios via a Learned Traffic Prior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.05077/) (2021)
- [Leapfrog Diffusion Model for Stochastic Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.10895/) (2023)
- [SGCN:Sparse Graph Convolution Network for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.01528/) (2021)
- [EqMotion: Equivariant Multi-agent Motion Prediction with Invariant Interaction Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.10876/) (2023)
- [Self-Supervised Aggregation of Diverse Experts for Test-Agnostic Long-Tailed Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.09249/) (2021)
- [Human Trajectory Prediction via Neural Social Physics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.10435/) (2022)
- [MG-GAN: A Multi-Generator Model Preventing Out-of-Distribution Samples in Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09274/) (2021)
- [On Exposing the Challenging Long Tail in Future Prediction of Traffic Actors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.12474/) (2021)
- [Bifold and Semantic Reasoning for Pedestrian Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.03298/) (2020)
- [FEND: A Future Enhanced Distribution-Aware Contrastive Learning Framework for Long-tail Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16574/) (2023)
- [PedFormer: Pedestrian Behavior Prediction via Cross-Modal Attention Modulation and Gated Multitask Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.07886/) (2022)
- [LatentFormer: Multi-Agent Transformer-Based Interaction Modeling and Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.01880/) (2022)
- [IPCC-TP: Utilizing Incremental Pearson Correlation Coefficient for Joint Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.00575/) (2023)
- [A Novel Benchmarking Paradigm and a Scale- and Motion-Aware Model for Egocentric Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10424/) (2023)
- [MGTR: Multi-Granular Transformer for Motion Prediction with LiDAR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.02409/) (2023)
- [DESTINE: Dynamic Goal Queries with Temporal Transductive Alignment for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07438/) (2023)
- [Meta-path Analysis on Spatio-Temporal Graphs for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.13427/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Generative Active Learning for Long-tail Trajectory Prediction via Controllable Diffusion Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.22615/) (2025)
- [GEMINUS: Dual-aware Global and Scene-Adaptive Mixture-of-Experts for End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.14456/) (2025)
- [Data-Driven Traffic Simulation for an Intersection in a Metropolis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00943/) (2024)
- [Ensemble of Pre-Trained Models for Long-Tailed Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.13914/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate prediction of pedestrians' future motions is critical for intelligent driving systems. Developing models for this task requires rich datasets containing diverse sets of samples. However, the existing naturalistic trajectory prediction datasets are generally imbalanced in favor of simpler samples and lack challenging scenarios. Such a long-tail effect causes prediction models to underperform on the tail portion of the data distribution containing safety-critical scenarios. Previous methods tackle the long-tail problem using methods such as contrastive learning and class-conditioned hypernetworks. These approaches, however, are not modular and cannot be applied to many machine learning architectures. In this work, we propose a modular model-agnostic framework for trajectory prediction that leverages a specialized mixture of experts. In our approach, each expert is trained with a specialized skill with respect to a particular part of the data. To produce predictions, we utilise a router network that selects the best expert by generating relative confidence scores. We conduct experimentation on common pedestrian trajectory prediction datasets and show that our method improves performance on long-tail scenarios. We further conduct ablation studies to highlight the contribution of different proposed components.